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北京市西城区流感样病例与气象因素的相关性研究

Analysis of the relationship between influenza-like illness and meteorological factors in Xicheng district of Beijing

摘要:

目的 探讨北京市西城区气象因素对流感样病例数的影响. 方法 采用广义相加模型(GAM),在控制长期趋势、季节波动及其他混杂因素基础上,分析西城区2012年7月至2017年6月气象因素对流感样病例数的影响. 结果 西城区的流感高峰季出现在冬春季,当最低气温处于-10℃以下、平均相对湿度在60%~80%、日照时数为7~10 h、平均风速达到4 m/s以上的天气条件下易出现流感高峰.各气象因素滞后2 d对流感样病例数影响最大,最低气温每增加1℃,流感样病例数减少0.87%(0.85%~0.89%);平均相对湿度每增加1%,流感样病例数减少0.11% (0.10%~0.13%);日照时数每增加1 h,流感样病例数减少0.03%(0.02%~0.04%);风速每增加1 m/s,流感样病例数增加0.51%(0.22%~0.80%). 结论 最低气温、平均相对湿度、日照时数、平均风 速是影响北京市西城区流感样病例数的主要气象因素,可将其作为流感防控和监测预警的指标.

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Objective To assess the relationship between influenza-like illness and meteorological factors. Methods The relationship between influenza-like illness and meteorological factors in Xicheng district of Beijing from July 2012 to June 2017 were analyzed using the generalized additive models (GAM) and time-series analysis, after controlling for long-term trend, seasonality and delayed effects. Results The pinnacle of influenza in Xicheng was observed in winter and spring, especially under the circumstance with the lowest temperature below -10℃ and the average relative humidity of 60%-80%, sunshine duration of 7-10 h and average wind velocity above 4 m/s. Meteorological factors lagging for 2 days showed the most significant influence on influenza-like illness. We found that 1℃increasing in lowest temperature led to an decrease of 0.87% (0.85%-0.89%) in the number of influenza-like cases. One percent increasing in average relative humidity may lead to an decrease of 0.11% (0.10%-0.13%) in the number of influenza-like cases. One hour increasing in sunshine duration may lead to an decrease of 0.03% (0.02%-0.04%) and one meter per second increment of wind velocity may lead to an increase of 0.51% (0.22%-0.80%) in the number of influenza-like cases. Conclusions Meteorological factors such as the lowest temperature, average relative humidity, sunshine duration, average wind velocity are tightly associated with influenza-like cases in Xicheng district. It can be used as an indicator for precautions against influenza, and for surveillance and early warning.

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