检索历史 清除

目的:分析2021年河北省石家庄市新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情流行特征，为优化疫情防控策略提供科学依据。方法:采用Excel、SPSS 21.0 软件对河北省石家庄市此次疫情的三间分布进行描述性分析，使用R 4.0.4中rstan 进行潜伏期的统计分析。结果:截止至2021年2月14日，河北省累计报告本土确诊病例942例，石家庄869例（其中847例可获病例资料）。此次暴发主要以农村地区为主，以小果庄村确诊人数最多，为249例（29.4%）；其次是南桥寨村，有128例（15.1%）；刘家佐村85例（10.0%）。疫情集中发生在2021年1月2日至2月14日，以农民及学生为主，传播形式以聚餐聚会及家庭接触为主，表现为明显的时间、职业集中趋势。分析有具体暴露时间和发病时间的石家庄市本土确诊病例116例，其潜伏期为6（3.3，10.0）d；有具体暴露时间窗和发病时间的石家庄市本土确诊病例264例，其中位数为8.5（95% CI 1.8~18.8）d。 结论:此次疫情暴发以农村地区为主，与聚会、聚餐及家庭聚集有关，应做好重点地区、重点人群的自我防护隔离，避免密切接触等措施，以减少COVID-19聚集性疫情的发生；根据此次疫情潜伏期结果，建议隔离时间应该延长至3周。

Objective:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province in 2021 and to provide scientific basis for developing improved strategies to prevent and control the outbreak of COVID-19.Methods:Descriptive analysis of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province was performed with SPSS 21.0 and Excel software. The statistical analysis of the incubation period was performed using the rstan package in R4.0.4.Results:As of February 14 th 2021, a total of 942 local confirmed cases were reported in Hebei Province, 869 cases in Shijiazhuang, of which 847 cases were available for case information. This outbreak was mainly in rural areas, with the largest number of confirmed cases in Xiaoguozhuang village, 249 (29.4%); followed by Nanqiaozhai village, 128 (15.1%); and Liujiazuo village, 85 (10.0%). The outbreak lasted from January 2 nd, 2021 to February 14 th, 2021, and was mainly transmitted among the farmers as well as the students through dining parties, public gatherings and family contacts, showing an obvious time and occupation concentration trend. An analysis of 116 local confirmed cases in this outbreak with specific exposure time and onset time indicated that the median incubation period was 6 [interquartile range(IQR): 3.3, 10.0] days; whereas another report including 264 local confirmed cases with specific exposure time window showed that a median incubation period was 8.5 [95% confidence interval ( CI): 1.8-18.8] days. Conclusions:This outbreak was mainly related to rural areas, and was associated with parties, public gatherings and family gatherings. Self-protection and isolation of key areas and populations at risk should be effectively implemented to avoid close contact and other measures to reduce the occurrence of COVID-19 aggregation. Based on the results of the incubation period of this outbreak, the isolation period could be recommended to be extended to three weeks.