• 医学文献
  • 知识库
  • 评价分析
  • 全部
  • 中外期刊
  • 学位
  • 会议
  • 专利
  • 成果
  • 标准
  • 法规
  • 临床诊疗知识库
  • 中医药知识库
  • 机构
  • 作者
热搜词:
换一批
论文 期刊
取消
高级检索

检索历史 清除

医学文献 >>
  • 全部
  • 中外期刊
  • 学位
  • 会议
  • 专利
  • 成果
  • 标准
  • 法规
知识库 >>
  • 临床诊疗知识库
  • 中医药知识库
评价分析 >>
  • 机构
  • 作者
热搜词:
换一批

致死性道路交通伤害预测模型的构建

Development of forecasting models for fatal road traffic injuries

摘要:

目的 构建针对致死性道路交通伤害预测模型,为预测道路交通伤害未来发展趋势提供基础.方法 查询WHO死亡数据库获取不同国家道路交通伤害死亡人数资料,通过世界银行、WHO、联合国人口司等机构网站获取各国不同年份人均GDP、城市化水平、机动化水平及教育水平等资料,构建包含上述4个自变量的男女各年龄组道路交通伤害死亡率对数模型,并与WHO模型拟合优度进行比较.结果 共收集2 626份数据(来自153个国家/地区;男女各半;时间1965-2010年).选用人均GDP、机动化水平、城市化水平和教育水平4个变量构建的道路交通伤害死亡率拟合模型均具有统计学意义(P<0.001),男性0~4、5~14、15 ~24、25~34、35~44、45~54、55 ~ 64、≥65岁组模型的决定系数R2分别为22.7%、31.1%、51.8%、52.3%、44.9%、41.8%、40.1%、25.5%,女性各年龄组分别为22.9%、32.6%、51.1%、49.3%、41.3%、35.9%、30.7%、20.1%;WHO模型仅选用人均GDP、教育水平和时间变量构建不同性别、年龄组预测模型,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.001),男性各年龄组模型决定系数R2分别为14.9%、22.0%、31.5%、33.1%、30.7%、28.5%、27.7%、17.8%;女性各年龄组模型分别为14.1%、20.6%、30.4%、31.8%、26.7%、24.3%、17.3%、8.8%.结论 本研究构建的道路交通伤害预测模型优于WHO模型.

更多
abstracts:

Objective To develop the forecasting models for fatal road traffic injuries and to provide evidence for predicting the future trends on road traffic injuries.Methods Data on the mortality of road traffic injury including factors as gender and age in different countries,were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database.Other information on GDP per capita,urbanization,motorization and education were collected from online resources of World Bank,WHO,the United Nations Population Division and other agencies.We fitted logarithmic models of road traffic injury mortality by gender and age group,including predictors of GDP per capita,urbanization,motorization and education.Sex-and age-specific forecasting models developed by WHO that including GDP per capita,education and time etc.were also fitted.Coefficient of determination (R2) was used to compare the performance between our modes and WHO models.Results 2 626 sets of data were collected from 153 countries/regions for both genders,between 1965 and 2010.The forecasting models of road traffic injury mortality based on GDP per capita,motorization,urbanization and education appeared to be statistically significant (P<0.001),and the coefficients of determination for males at the age groups of 0-4,5-14,15-24,25-34,35-44,45-54,55-64,65+ were 22.7%,31.1%,51.8%,52.3 %,44.9%,41.8%,40.1%,25.5%,respectively while the coefficients for these age groups in women were 22.9%,32.6%,51.1%,49.3%,41.3%,35.9%,30.7%,20.1%,respectively.The WHO models that were based on the GDP per capita,education and time variables were statistically significant (P<0.001) and the coefficients of determination were 14.9%,22.0%,31.5%,33.1%,30.7%,28.5%,27.7% and 17.8% for males,but 14.1%,20.6%,30.4%,31.8%,26.7%,24.3%,17.3% and 8.8% for females,respectively.Conclusion The forecasting models that we developed seemed to be better than those developed by WHO.

More
作者: 谭爱春 [1] 田丹平 [1] 黄渊秀 [1] 高林 [1] 邓欣 [1] 李黎 [1] 何琼 [1] 陈田木 [1] 胡国清 [1]
期刊: 《中华流行病学杂志》2014年35卷2期 174-177页 MEDLINEISTICPKUCSCD
栏目名称: 监测
DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2014.02.016
发布时间: 2014-03-13
基金项目:
中南大学教师研究基金项目 a grant from the Central Sacth University Faculth Grant
  • 浏览:354
  • 下载:100

加载中!

相似文献

  • 中文期刊
  • 外文期刊
  • 学位论文
  • 会议论文

加载中!

加载中!

加载中!

加载中!

扩展文献

特别提示:本网站仅提供医学学术资源服务,不销售任何药品和器械,有关药品和器械的销售信息,请查阅其他网站。

  • 客服热线:4000-115-888 转3 (周一至周五:8:00至17:00)

  • |
  • 客服邮箱:yiyao@wanfangdata.com.cn

  • 违法和不良信息举报电话:4000-115-888,举报邮箱:problem@wanfangdata.com.cn,举报专区

官方微信
万方医学小程序
new翻译 充值 订阅 收藏 移动端

官方微信

万方医学小程序

使用
帮助
Alternate Text
调查问卷