摘要流感是严重危害全球和公众健康的急性呼吸道传染病.由于流感病毒容易发生变异,难以预测,WHO一直推动全球持续加强流感监测,以实时监测流感活动水平和流行趋势.通过建立流感流行基线和阈值有助于判断流感疫情的开始和严重程度.目前,计算基线和阈值的方法多样,例如年中位数、百分位数法、移动流行区间法和控制图法等.本文将对检索到的国内外制定流感基线或阈值的方法进行归纳总结,希望为我国流感基线或阈值的制定提供参考依据.

abstractsInfluenza is an acute respiratory infection that seriously harms the world and public health. Because influenza viruses are prone to mutations and difficult to predict, the World Health Organization has been promoting global continuous strengthening of influenza surveillance to monitor the level of influenza activity and epidemic trends in real time. Establishing baselines and thresholds for influenza epidemic helps to gauge the start and severity of influenza seasons. At present, there are various methods for calculating baseline and threshold, such as annual median value, percentile approach, moving epidemic method, and control chart method. This paper will summarize the methods of establishing influenza baseline or threshold at home and abroad, and hope to provide reference for the establishment of baseline or threshold of influenza in China.