摘要目的构建一套指标全面、简单,适用于老年人群推广的阿尔茨海默病(AD)风险评估模型,预测老年人未来患病风险并进行早期干预.方法2018年6月通过文献回顾法和头脑风暴初筛疾病危险因素,后结合Meta分析再评价和结构式专家咨询筛选危险因素与OR值纳入模型,按照哈佛癌症指数公式计算个体相对风险及未来5年绝对风险.结果模型最终纳入24个指标:女性、无配偶、教育水平、人格、痴呆家族史、疱疹病毒感染、中年期高血压、糖尿病、脑卒中、颅脑损伤、听力障碍、牙周炎、抑郁、吸烟、饮酒、咖啡/茶、深海鱼、蔬菜水果、运动、睡眠、社会活动、腰围、血清同型半胱氨酸、血清甲状腺素.结论利用改良哈佛癌症风险指数法建立的个体AD发病风险的模型可预测个体较一般人群未来患阿尔茨海默病的相对风险与绝对风险,为高危人群筛查和干预措施实施提供了依据和指导.

abstractsObjectiveTo construct a comprehensive and simple risk assessment model for Alzheimer's disease (AD), which is suitable for the promotion of the elderly population, to predict the future risk of AD among the elderly and to intervene in the early stage. MethodsIn June 2018, risk factors were screened by literature review and brainstorming, and then combined with Meta-analysis reappraisal and structured expert consultation to screen risk factors and OR values into the model. Individual relative risk and absolute risk in the next five years were calculated according to the Harvard Cancer Index formula. ResultsThe model finally included 24 indicators: female, no spouse, education level, personality, family history of dementia, herpes virus infection, middle-aged hypertension, diabetes, stroke, brain injury, hearing impairment, periodontitis, depression, smoking, drinking alcohol, coffee/tea, deep-sea fish, vegetables and fruits, exercise, sleep, social life, waist circumference, serum homocysteine and serum thyroxine. ConclusionsThe model of individual AD risk established by modified Harvard Cancer Risk Index can predict the relative and absolute risk of Alzheimer's disease in the future, which provides the basis and guidance for screening and intervention of high-risk population.