摘要目的 评价急性胰腺炎床旁严重度指数(BISAP)与无害性胰腺炎评分(HAPS)评估急性胰腺炎(AP)预后的价值.方法 回顾性分析2003年1月至2010年12月中山大学附属第一医院收治的442例AP患者资料,计算BISAP和HAP评分,绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线并计算曲线下面积(AUC),分析它们对AP严重度、局部并发症、器官功能不全、预后的评估价值,并与传统的Ranson评分进行比较.结果 442例AP患者中,73例(16.5％)为重症急性胰腺炎(SAP).BISAP评分预测SAP、局部并发症、器官功能不全、病死结局的AUC分别是0.90(95％ CI:0.86～ 0.93)、0.82(95％ CI:0.76～0.89)、0.93(95％ CI:0.89 ～0.96)、0.93(95％ CI:0.87 ～0.98).BISAP评分和Ranson评分上述4项指标的AUC差异无统计学意义.HAP评分预测轻症急性胰腺炎(MAP)的特异性为85％,阳性预测值95％,AUC为0.73(95％CI:0.67 ～ 0.79).将BISAP和HAP评分相结合,2种评分均异常的患者发生不良结局的风险逐渐升高.结论 BISAP评分对AP预后的评估价值与Ranson评分相当,但更为简便.HAP评分能简单且准确地预测MAP的预后,BISAP和HAP评分相结合有助于更好地判断AP患者的预后.

abstractsObjective To evaluate the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) and harmless acute pancreatitis (HAP) scoring system in predicting prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP).Methods A total of 442 AP patients,who were admitted to The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from January 2003 to December 2010,were retrospectively studied.BISAP and HAP scores were evaluated respectively.The value of BISAP and HAP scores in predicting severity,local complications,organ failure and mortality were measured by the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC),and it was compared with that of traditional Ranson's score.Results Among 442 patients,73 patients (16.5％) were diagnosed to have severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).AUC for BISAP score in predicting SAP,local complications,organ failure and mortality were 0.90 (95％ CI:0.86 ～ 0.93),0.82(95％ CI:0.76 ～ 0.89),0.93 (95％ CI:0.89 ～ 0.96),0.93 (95％ CI:0.87 ～ 0.98).There were no statistically significant differences in AUCs of the four prognostic parameters between BISAP and Ranson's score.The specificity,positive predictive value (PPV),and AUC of HAP score in predicting mild AP were 85％,95％ and 0.73 (95％ CI:0.67 ～ 0.79).The risk of dismal prognosis increased when both BISAP and HAP score were abnormal.Conclusions BISAP and Ranson's score have comparable ability in predicting prognosis of patients with AP.However,BISAP score is simpler.HAP score is a simple and accurate method for predicting prognosis of patients with mild AP.Combination of BISAP score with HAP score can better help predict the prognosis of AP patients.