摘要目的 预测河南省安阳市布鲁菌病(简称布病)的流行趋势,为开展预防控制措施提供依据.方法 收集2004-2015年中国疾病监测信息报告管理系统的传染病报告信息管理系统中安阳市人布病疫情资料,于安阳市统计局收集人口资料,选择布病发病数和发病率,建立灰色模型(GM),并预测安阳市2016-2018年的人布病发病率.结果 所建立的GM(1,1)预测和检验精度等级好,后验差比值(C)=0.32,小误差概率(P)=0.99,可以用于外推预测;实际发病率与预测值比较,数值基本吻合,拟合效果好.预测2016-2018年安阳市布病发病率为2.92/10万、3.12/10万和3.43/10万,有增长趋势.结论 GM(1,1)可应用于布病发病率预测,在实际预测时需考虑传染病流行特征及社会因素.

abstractsObjective To predict incidence trend of brucellosis in Anyang,Henan Province,so as to provide basis for instituting aimed preventive management.Methods To construct gray model (GM) according to incidence and rate of brucellosis of Anyang from 2004 to 2015,and predict the incidence rate of brucellosis of Anyang from 2016 to 2018.The data of brucellosis in Anyang were from the Infectious Disease Report Information Management System for Disease Control,China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention,the population data were from Anyang Bureau of Statistics.Results The GM (1,1) had good accuracy in predicting and test,the posterior error ratio (C) =0.32,and the probability value (P) =0.99.The model could be used for extrapolating prediction.The actual incidence rate was compared with the predicted value,the value was basically consistent,fit effect was good.The predictive morbidity of brucellosis was 2.92/105,3.12/105 and 3.43/105 from 2016 to 2018 in Anyang,the incidence showed an increasing trend.Conclusions The GM (1,1) has high precision for predicting incidence of brucellosis.We need to take into account the epidemic characteristics of infectious diseases and social factors in actual practice.