摘要目的:分析甘肃省肃北、肃南县喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫自然疫源地内气象因素对鼠疫流行的影响。方法:收集1973 - 2016年肃北、肃南2个县喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地鼠疫监测资料（来源于甘肃省疾病预防控制中心）和当年及领先1、2、3年（相对于当年作为参照的前1、2、3个年份）的气象因素（年均降雨量、气温、相对湿度）资料（来源于中国气象数据共享服务网）。采用R2.3.2软件，以年鼠疫检菌阳性率为因变量，气象因素为自变量建立时间序列半参数广义相加模型（generalized additive model，GAM），采用非线性效应关系定量研究气象因素对鼠疫的影响。结果:2006 - 2016年与1974 - 1983年相比，年均气温、相对湿度、降雨量的平均值肃北县分别上升了0.99 ℃、3.55%RH、12.16 mm；肃南县分别上升了1.00 ℃、2.01%RH、14.60 mm。1973 - 2016年共发生11起人间鼠疫，发病12例，死亡7例。肃北县鼠疫疫源地内领先3年年均降雨量在一定范围内每升高1.00 mm，动物鼠疫发生增加0.40%；领先2年年均相对湿度在一定范围内每升高1.00%RH，动物鼠疫发生增加11.66%。肃南县鼠疫疫源地内领先1年年均降雨量在一定范围内每升高1.00 mm，动物鼠疫发生增加1.32%；领先3年年均相对湿度在一定范围内每升高1.00%RH，动物鼠疫发生增加11.96%。另外，肃北、肃南县领先2年年均气温在一定范围内每升高1.00 ℃，动物鼠疫发生分别增加73.17%、70.18%。结论:甘肃省肃北、肃南县鼠疫的发生流行与气象因素关系密切，一定范围内的年均气温上升对鼠疫的流行不仅有明显的促进作用，而且存在滞后效应。另外，同一疫源地内不同类型气候对动物鼠疫流行的影响存在一定差异。

abstractsObjective:To analyse the effects of meteorological factors on plague epidemic in Himalayana marmot plague natural foci in Subei and Sunan counties of Gansu Province. Methods:The surveillance data of plague from 1973 to 2016 in Himalayan marmot foci of Subei and Sunan counties (from Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention) and the meteorological factors (rainfall, temperature, relative humidity) of current, preceding first, second and third years (the first, second and third years before the reference year, from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System) were collected. In order to build generalized additive model (GAM), the positive rate of plague was used as dependent variable while meteorological factors of the current, preceding first, second and third years were used as independent variables. The influence of meteorological factors on plague was quantitatively analyzed by using R2.3.2 software. Results:In 2006 - 2016, compared with 1974 - 1983, the average temperature in Subei rose by 0.99 ℃, the average relative humidity rose by 3.55%RH, and the average rainfall rose by 12.16 mm; in Sunan County, the average temperature rose by 1.00 ℃, the average relative humidity rose by 2.01%RH, and the average rainfall rose by 14.60 mm. From 1973 to 2016, 11 cases of human plague with 7 cases of dead (12 cases of attack) occurred in the investigated district. The average rainfall of the preceding third year of Subei rose every 1.00 mm within a certain range, the animal plague occurred rose by 0.40%. The average relative humidity of preceding second year of Subei rose every 1.00%RH within a certain range, animal plague occurred rose by 11.66%. The average rainfall of the preceding first year of Sunan rose every 1.00 mm within a certain range, the animal plague occurred rose by 1.32%. The average relative humidity of preceding third year of Sunan rose every 1.00%RH within a certain range, animal plague occurred rose by 11.96%. The average temperature of the preceding second year of Subei, Sunan rose every 1.00 ℃ within a certain range, animal plague rose 73.17%, 70.18%, respectively.Conclusions:The occurrence and prevalence of plague in Himalayana marmot are closely related to meteorological factors, and the temperature within a certain range (but not continuously) not only promotes the epidemic of plague, but also has a lag effect. In addition, the effects of different types of climate in the same foci on the prevalence of animal plague vary.