摘要Background Some studies found that cholinesterase (ChE) can be an independent risk factor for patients with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome.To assess aged patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) early and predict their prognosis,the predictive value of ChE for the prognosis of aged patients with SIRS was analyzed.Methods From September 2009 to September 2010,all aged patients with SIRS in the ICU of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine were retrospectively analyzed if they met inclusion criteria:patients aged ＞65 years and met American College of Chest Physicians/Society of Critical Care Medicine Consensus Conference criteria for SIRS.Serum ChE,albumin,D-dimer,lactic acid and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured,and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) Ⅱ and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores were evaluated within the first 24 hours in the ICU.Fisher's exact test was used for comparison of the primary disease between the deceased group and surviving group.For comparison of study variables between the two groups,the Student's t test or Mann-Whitney U test was used.Multivariate significance was tested with binary Logistic regression analysis.Results The clinical data of 124 aged patients with SIRS were collected and analyzed.Sixty-six patients (46 male,20female,mean age (78.70±8.08) years) who died were included in the deceased group and 58 patients (34 male,24female,mean age (76.02±6.57) years) who survived were included in the surviving group.There were no significant differences in age,gender,APACHE Ⅱ score and GCS score between the deceased group and surviving group (all P＞0.05),but there were significant differences in lactic acid (P=0.011),D-dimer (P=0.011),albumin (P=0.007),CRP (P=0.008),and ChE (P ＜0.0001).The correlation analysis showed that the APACHE Ⅱ score and CRP were not correlated with ChE (both P ＜0.05).D-dimer and albumin were correlated with ChE (Spearman's rho correlation coefficients were-0.206 and 0.324,the corresponding P values were 0.022 and ＜0.0001).Multiple Logistic regression analysis showed that age,gender,lactic acid,D-dimer,albumin,CRP,APACHE Ⅱ score,and GCS score were not independent risk factors for prognosis of aged patients with SIRS,but that ChE was (P ＜0.0001).The receiver operating characteristic curve of ChE had an area under the curve of 0.797 (standard error=0.04;P ＜0.0001),and a ChE of 103.00U/L was the cut-off value with sensitivity=0.793,specificity=0.742.Conclusion Serum ChE might be a predictive marker for the prognosis of aged patients with SIRS,with low serum ChE levels indicating poor prognosis.