摘要目的:分析2004—2018年中国不同年龄段人群道路交通伤害（RTIs）发展趋势，为针对性预防RTIs提供参考。方法:基于中国交通事故统计年报和中国统计年鉴，将年龄分为0~14岁、15~34岁、35~59岁及≥60岁四个年龄段。计算2004—2018年不同年龄段RTIs事故总起数、死亡人数、受伤人数及年龄构成比，计算不同年龄段RTIs死亡率、伤残率，并通过分段回归模型估算2004—2018年中国不同年龄段RTIs事故总起数、死亡人数、死亡率、受伤人数、伤残率的年度变化百分比（APC）和平均年度变化百分比（AAPC），分析不同年龄段人群RTIs发展趋势。结果:2004—2018年RTIs事故总起数、死亡人数和受伤人数年龄主要分布在15~34岁和35~59岁，构成比均>40%，≥60岁构成比较小但逐渐升高。分段回归模型的拟合值与实际值相对误差较小，拟合效果良好。2004—2018年RTIs事故总起数、死亡人数、死亡率、受伤人数、伤残率平均年度降幅有统计学意义（分别为AAPC=-5.53， P<0.01；AAPC=-3.64， P<0.01；AAPC=-4.19， P<0.01；AAPC=-5.13， P<0.01；AAPC=-5.65， P<0.01），但2016年及以后RTIs事故总起数、死亡人数、死亡率年度增幅有统计学意义（分别为APC=8.15， P<0.05；APC=2.10， P<0.01；APC=1.55， P<0.05）。2004—2018年15~34岁、35~59岁人群RTIs事故总起数、死亡人数、死亡率、受伤人数、伤残率平均年度降幅有统计学意义（AAPC<0， P<0.05），≥60岁人群RTIs事故总起数、死亡人数、死亡率、受伤人数、伤残率平均年度增幅有统计学意义（分别为AAPC=7.13， P<0.01；AAPC=6.64， P<0.01；AAPC=3.37， P<0.05；AAPC=8.85， P<0.01；AAPC=5.83， P<0.01）。 结论:2004—2018年中国整体及15~34岁、35~59岁人群RTIs事故总起数、死亡人数、死亡率、受伤人数、伤残率呈下降趋势，而≥60岁人群呈上升趋势。尤其是从2016年起，≥60岁人群RTIs指标开始大幅度上升，应加强对老年人的交通安全意识教育，从而预防老年RTIs的发生。

abstractsObjective:To analyze the tendency of road traffic injuries (RTIs) among different age groups in China from 2004 to 2018 so as to provide a reference for targeted prevention of RTIs.Methods:Based on the annual traffic accident report data from the Ministry of Public Security of China and the China Statistical Yearbook, the age was divided into four groups: 0-14 years, 15-34 years, 35-59 years and ≥60 years. The total number of accidents, number of fatalities, number of injuries and age composition ratio of RTIs in different age groups were calculated from 2004 to 2018, and the mortality and disability rates of RTIs in different age groups were also calculated. The annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of the total number of accidents, number of fatalities, mortality rate, number of injuries and disability rate of RTIs among different age groups in China were measured by Joinpoint regression so as to analyze development trend of RTIs.Results:From 2004 to 2018, the age distribution concerning the number of accidents, deaths and injuries of RTIs were mainly among 15-34 years and 35-59 years, with the composition ratio greater than 40%. The composition ratio of people aged ≥60 years was small, but was increased gradually. The fitted value of the segmented regression model had a small relative error with the actual value, showing good fitting effect. From 2004 to 2018, the total number of accidents, number of fatalities, mortality rate, number of injuries and disability rate of RTIs in China were all statistically descended (AAPC=-5.53， P<0.01；AAPC=-3.64， P<0.01；AAPC=-4.19, P<0.01; AAPC=-5.13, P<0.01, AAPC=-5.65, P<0.01). Total number of accidents, number of fatalities and mortality rate of RTIs in China showed a notable upward trend instead after 2016 (APC=8.15, P=0.03; APC=2.10, P<0.01, APC=1.55, P<0.05). From 2004 to 2018, the total number of accidents, number of fatalities, mortality rate，number of injuries and disability rate of RTIs among people aged 15-34 years and 35-59 years were statistically descended (AAPC<0, P<0.05), while the total number of accidents, number of fatalities, mortality rate, number of injuries, and disability rate of RTIs among people aged ≥ 60 years showed a notable upward trend instead (AAPC=7.13, P<0.01; AAPC=6.64, P<0.01; AAPC=3.37, P<0.05; AAPC=8.85, P<0.01; AAPC=5.83, P<0.01). Conclusions:From 2004 to 2018, the total number of accidents, number of fatalities, mortality rate, number of injuries and disability rate of RTIs present a decrease trend in China and among people aged 15-34 years and 35-59 years, while an upward trend in those aged ≥60 years. In particular, the RTIs among people aged ≥60 years in China show an increase significantly since 2016, so the education of traffic safety awareness for the elderly should be strengthened to prevent their occurrence of RTIs.