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目的 了解北京农村地区老年人长期护理现状和未来选择意愿及相关因素,为政府完善有关老年人长期关爱和照顾政策提供参考.方法 2012年12月至2013年1月,采用现况调查的方法,以北京农村地区1022名60岁以上老年人为调查对象,问卷调查其人口学信息、健康状况、长期护理现状和未来长期护理模式的选择意愿;采用x2检验和多元非条件Logistic回归,分析调查对象未来选择不同长期护理模式的相关因素.结果 调查显示有6.00％(59/1016)的老人目前需要长期护理,有82.86％(841/1013)的老人今后会选择家庭长期护理模式,有7.68％(78/1013)的老年人选择社区长期护理模式.单因素分析发现,影响老年人选择家庭长期护理的因素有文化程度、职业、月人均收入、居住情况、同住子女数量、医疗保险、养老保险、慢性病患病情况、听力、味觉和触觉自我评价(x2=33.03、136.17、99.32、88.83、58.07、147.71、108.11、9.85、33.78、30.45、22.22,P＜0.05).多因素分析发现影响老年人选择家庭长期护理的相关因素是职业、月人均收入、与配偶居住情况、参加新农合以及对视力状况的自我评价,OR值(95％CI)分别为:2.48 (1.21～5.10),0.82(0.71～0.95),1.64(1.08～2.49),4.78(2.93～7.82),0.72(0.59～0.89).结论 以家庭为基础的综合性长期护理和健康管理体系建设,是北京市农村老年人未来重要的选择和需求方向.

Objective To understand current status and influencing factors of long-term care for elderly people who lived in rural areas of Beijing.Methods A total of 1022 elderly people (age＞60 years old) were enrolled in this cross-sectional study during December,2012 and January,2013.Demographic information,health status and needs of and intent to long-term care were learned through a questionaire survey.Chi-square test and muhiple non-conditional logistic regression analysis were used to identify the factors that were related to the respondents' selection.Results Nearly 6.6％ (61/1016) participants showed needs for long-term care.82.3％ (841/1013) respondents preferred household-based long-term care,while 7.53％ (77/1013) preferred community-based long-term care.In single factor analysis,education level,occupation,household income,living conditions,number of children living together,medical insurance,pension insurance,chronic diseases and self-report hearing ability,taste and touch were related with longterm care needs (x2values were 33.03,136.17,99.32,88.83,58.07,147.71,108.11,9.85,33.78,30.45 and 22.22,respectively; all P＜0.05).Multivariate analysis showed that occupation,income per capita,spouses living conditions,new corporative medical systems and self-report visual status were correlated with household-based long-term care (odds ratio (OR) were 2.48 (95％ confidence interval (CI) 1.21-5.10),0.82(0.71-0.95),1.64 (1.08-2.49),4.78 (2.93-7.82) and 0.72 (0.59-0.89),respectively).Conclusion Householdbased long-term care and health management system may be needed and chosen by the elderly living in rural areas of Beijing.