摘要目的 了解昆山市1993至2016年慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡率及早死概率变化趋势.方法收集1993至2016年昆山市分性别和年龄组的慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡病例,计算粗死亡率和年龄标化率及早死概率.使用年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)评价慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡率在年份之间变化趋势.结果 慢性呼吸系统疾病粗死亡率在总人群中由1993年的129.14/10万下降到2016年的41.10/10万(APC=-4.1%,95% CI:-5.1%~-3.1%,P<0.01);总人群中标死亡率由1993年的107.85/10万下降到2016年14.60/10万(APC=-7.7%,95% CI :-8.6%~-6.8%,P<0.01).总人群中慢性呼 吸 系 统 疾 病 早 死 概 率 由 1993 年 的 3.96% 下 降 到 2016 年 的 0.28%(APC=- 13.2%, 95% CI :-14.7%~-11.7%,P<0.01).结论 昆山市1993至2016年慢性呼吸系统疾病死亡率明显下降,居民在70岁之前死于慢性呼吸系统疾病的概率较低.

abstractsObjective To examine the temporal trend of mortality and probability of premature death from chronic respiratory disease in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province. Methods Records of chronic respiratory disease death were derived from the vital registry system. Crude death rates, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature death were calculated. Annual percent changes (APC) were estimated to examine the temporal trend. Results The crude death rate of chronic respiratory disease decreased from 129.14/105in 1993 to 41.10/105in 2016, and its APC was-4.1% (95% CI:-5.1%--3.1%, P<0.01). Age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 107.85/105in 1993 to 14.60/105in 2016 for both sexes (APC=-7.7%, 95% CI:-8.6%--6.8%, P<0.01). Moreover, the probability of premature death from chronic respiratory disease decreased from 3.96% in 1993 to 0.28% in 2016 (APC=-13.2%, 95% CI:-14.7%- -11.7%, P<0.01). Conclusion The mortality rate of chronic respiratory disease decreased substantially from the year 1993 to 2016 in Kunshan City. Residents are less likely to die of chronic respiratory disease before 70 years of age.