摘要目的:构建卒中高危人群健康管理效果评价指标体系。方法:于2020年3—5月查阅文献资料，以健康生态学、社会认知、知信行理论为理论指导，采用文献回顾法结合小组讨论拟定卒中高危人群健康管理效果评价指标体系初稿。通过两轮德尔菲专家咨询法构建卒中高危人群健康管理效果评价指标体系，并运用层次分析法确定各项指标权重。共22名专家被邀请参与专家咨询，第一轮函询发放问卷22份，收回问卷20份，其中有效问卷20份（90.9%）；第二轮函询发放问卷20份，收回问卷19份，其中有效问卷19份（95.0%）。结果:两轮专家权威系数Cr分别为0.933、0.937；第二轮专家函询中重要性的肯德尔协调系数 W显著高于第一轮（0.299比0.172）（ P<0.001）；各级指标的重要性得分均数Mj为4.10~5.00，变异系数CV为0~0.235，满分比Kj为0.26~1.00。最终构建了包含3项一级指标（个体特质、行为方式、环境支持）、12项二级指标和58项三级指标的卒中高危人群健康管理效果评价指标体系。 结论:本研究构建了卒中高危人群健康管理效果评价指标体系，提供了科学的量化指标和测评工具，专家积极性、权威性、意见协调程度均较高，具有一定的可行性。

abstractsObjective:To construct an evaluation indicator system for the health management effects in high-risk stroke population.Methods:From March to May 2020, based on health ecology theory, social cognitive theory and knowledge, attitude/belief, practice theory, the first draft of the evaluation index system for health management effects of high-risk stroke groups was drawn up by literature review and group discussion. Through two rounds of Delphi expert consultation, the evaluation index system of health management effects of high-risk stroke groups was established, and the weight of each index was determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A total of 22 experts were invited to participate in expert consultation. Twenty-two questionnaires were sent out in the first round, and 20 questionnaires were recovered, of which 20 were valid (90.9%). In the second round of correspondence, 20 questionnaires were sent out and 19 questionnaires were recovered, of which 19 were valid (95.0%).Results:The authority coefficients of the two rounds of expert consultation (Cr) was 0.933 and 0.937, respectively. The Kendall coordination coefficients W of importance in the second round was significantly higher than that in the first round (0.299 vs 0.172) ( P<0.001). The mean of importance score (Mj) of each index was 4.10-5.00, coefficient of variation (CV) was 0-0.235, and full mark ratio (Kj) was 0.26-1.00. Finally, an evaluation index system of the health management effects for high-risk stroke population was constructed, which included 3 first-level indicators (individual characteristics, behavior style, environmental support), 12 second-level indicators and 58 third-level indicators. Conclusions:The evaluation index system of the health management effects for high-risk stroke population is established in this study, which provides scientific quantitative indicators and evaluation tools. The enthusiasm, authority and coordination of consultation experts are strong, which indicates that the indicator system is feasible.