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External validation of new risk prediction models is infrequent and reveals worse prognostic discrimination.

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第一作者： George C M,Siontis

第一单位： Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine, University Campus, P.O. Box 1186, 45110 Ioannina, Greece.

作者： George C M,Siontis ^[1] ; Ioanna,Tzoulaki ^[2] ; Peter J,Castaldi ^[3] ; John P A,Ioannidis ^[4]

作者单位： Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine, University Campus, P.O. Box 1186, 45110 Ioannina, Greece. ^[1] Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine, University Campus, P.O. Box 1186, 45110 Ioannina, Greece; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place W2 1PG, London, United Kingdom. ^[2] Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, 181 Longwood Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA. ^[3] Department of Medicine, Stanford Prevention Research Center, Stanford University School of Medicine, 1265 Welch Rd, MSOB X306, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; Department of Health Research and Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; Department of Statistics, Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. Electronic address: jioannid@stanford.edu. ^[4]

关键词 Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve Derivation study Discrimination External validation Prognostic models Risk prediction model