Forecasting the 2017/2018 seasonal influenza epidemic in England using multiple dynamic transmission models: a case study.

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作者： Paul J,Birrell ^[1] ; Xu-Sheng,Zhang ^[2] ; Alice,Corbella ^[3] ; Edwin,van Leeuwen ^[4] ; Nikolaos,Panagiotopoulos ^[3] ; Katja,Hoschler ^[3] ; Alex J,Elliot ^[5] ; Maryia,McGee ^[6] ; Simon de,Lusignan ^[7] ; Anne M,Presanis ^[8] ; Marc,Baguelin ^[7] ; Maria,Zambon ^[8] ; André,Charlett ^[4] ; Richard G,Pebody ^[5] ; Daniela De,Angelis ^[3]

作者单位： MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge Institute of Public Health, Robinson Way, Cambridge, CB2 0SR, UK. paul.birrell@phe.gov.uk. ^[1] National Infection Service, Public Health England, 61 Colindale Avenue, London, NW9 5EQ, UK. paul.birrell@phe.gov.uk. ^[2] National Infection Service, Public Health England, 61 Colindale Avenue, London, NW9 5EQ, UK. ^[3] MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge Institute of Public Health, Robinson Way, Cambridge, CB2 0SR, UK. ^[4] Virus Reference Department, National Infection Service, Public Health England, 61 Colindale Avenue, London, NW9 5EQ, UK. ^[5] Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Field Service, National Infection Service, Public Health England, 5 St Philip's Place, Birmingham, B3 2PW, UK. ^[6] Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK. ^[7] Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, 30 Euston Square, London, NW1 2FB, UK. ^[8]

关键词 Forecasting GP consultations Intensive care admissions Nowcasting Seasonal influenza Transmission models