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Early prediction of mortality in acute cholangitis:Elaboration of a new simple prognostic score

摘要Background:Acute cholangitis is an infection due to the bile duct obstruction.Despite progress in treat-ment,acute cholangitis remains potentially fatal.Early diagnosis and treatment improve the patient out-comes.The present study aimed to identify clinical and biological factors at admission associated with 30-day mortality in acute cholangitis,to build an efficient prognostic score based on these parameters and to study the performances of this new score.Methods:We enrolled all adult patients consecutively hospitalized for acute cholangitis between January 2017 and December 2021.We developed a score system named ProChol using variables significantly asso-ciated with 30-day mortality in multivariate logistic analysis and simplified this system(named sProChol)based on a simple points-based approach.Results:In total,528 patients were included,with an average age of 77±13 years,a male predominance(54.2%)and a majority of lithiasis etiology(66.5%).Mortality in 30 days was 11.9%.In multivariate logis-tic analysis,tumor etiology[adjusted odds ratio(aOR)=15.43,95%confidence interval(CI):5.90-40.40],stent obstruction(aOR=5.12,95%CI:2.02-12.99),hypoalbuminemia(aOR=3.50,95%CI:1.25-9.81),renal failure(aOR=6.51,95%CI:2.62-16.18),oxygen therapy(aOR=4.63,95%CI:1.02-20.92)and cu-rative anticoagulation(aOR=2.60,95%CI:1.23-5.52)were independently associated with the 30-day mortality while fever was a protective factor(aOR=0.37,95%CI:0.16-0.84).ProChol score using these 7 parameters and sProChol using the 3 robust factors(etiology,renal failure and anticoagulation)presented respectively an area under receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves(AUC)of 0.81 and 0.77,higher than Tokyo(AUC=0.72)and Gravito-Soares et al.score(AUC=0.71).Patients with sProChol ≥ 4 had a significantly higher risk of transfer to intensive care unit(13.3%vs.5.1%;P<0.001)and longer length of stay(P=0.0006).Conclusions:ProChol and sProChol constructed from simple clinico-biological parameters at admission,present interesting performances in predicting the 30-day mortality in acute cholangitis.

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作者 Karina Hocine [1] Ana?s R.Briant [2] Thomas Chaigneau [3] Wendy Kam [4] Thierry Collet [1] Jean-Jacques Parienti [2] Marie Astrid Piquet [1] Beno?t Dupont [3] 学术成果认领
作者单位 Department of Hepato-Gastroenterology and Nutrition,Normandie University,UNICAEN,CHU de Caen Normandie,14033,Caen,France [1] Department of Clinical Research and Biostatistics,Normandie University,UNICAEN,CHU de Caen Normandie,14033,Caen,France [2] Department of Hepato-Gastroenterology and Nutrition,Normandie University,UNICAEN,CHU de Caen Normandie,14033,Caen,France;'Anticipe'U1086 INSERM-UCBN,UNICAEN,Normandie Univ,14000,Caen,France [3] 'Anticipe'U1086 INSERM-UCBN,UNICAEN,Normandie Univ,14000,Caen,France [4]
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DOI 10.1016/j.hbpd.2025.06.006
发布时间 2025-11-18(万方平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)
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