摘要目的 构建Serfling回归模型,估计北京市2007-2011年流行性感冒(简称流感)相关的超额流感样病例数.方法 使用“北京市医疗机构传染病监测预警系统”中二级以上医院流感样病例周数据,拟合Seffling回归模型,估计超额流感样病例数.结果 2007/2008、2008/2009、2009/2010和2010/2011年度各有6、3、19和8个流行周,包括有2007/2008年度第524周、2008/2009年度第51-1周、2009/2010年度第37-38周和第42-6周、2010/2011年度第48-3周.2007/2008、2008/2009、2009/2010和2010/2011年度流行周的超额流感样病例数分别为41905(95％ CI:21541～62265)、17936(95％ CI:7747～28124)、226150(95％ CI:162531 ～289768)和40083(95％ CI:13013～67154)人,占同期全部流感样病例数的44.75％ (95％ CI:23.00 ～ 66.49％)、37.93％ (95％ CI:16.38～58.47％)、50.01％ (95％ CI:35.94 ～64.08％)和27.89％ (95％ CI:8.05 ～46.73％).结论 应用本模型估算,北京市每年在流感季节性流行期间和大流行期间,流感病毒均可造成数万至数十万的超额流感样病例和超额门诊就诊量.

abstractsObjective To estimate the excess numbers of influenza-like illness cases attributed to influenza by Serfling regression model during 2007 to 2011 in Beijing.Methods We obtained weekly numbers of influenza-like illness cases in Grade 2 or 3 hospitals from a city level surveillance system,“Early warning system for infectious disease in medical institutions in Beijing”.The excess numbers of influenzalike illness cases attributed to influenza were assessed by Serfling regression model.Results There were 6,3,19 and 8 epidemic weeks in season 2007/2008,2008/2009,2009/2010 and 2010/2011,respectively,including 52 nd-4 th week in season 2007/2008,51st- 1st week in season 2008/2009,37 th-38 th and 42 nd-6th week in season 2009/2010,and 48th-3rd week in season 2010/2011.The excess numbers of influenza-like illnesscases attributed to influenza were 41905 (95％ CI:21541-62265),17936 (95％ CI:7747-28124),226150 (95％ CI:162531-289768) and 40083 (95％ CI:13013-67154),and accounted for 44.75％(95％ CI:23.00-66.49％),37.93％ (95％ CI:16.38-58.47％),50.01％ (95％ CI:35.94-64.08％ ) and 27.89％ (95％ CI:8.05-46.73％ ) of all influenza-like illness cases in season 2007/2008,2008/2009,2009/2010 and 2010/2011,respectively.Conclusion There were hundreds of thousands of excess influenza-like illness cases and outpatient services attributed to influenza pandemic every year estimated by this model.