摘要目的 应用CUSUM模型探讨北京市流感流行起始时间.方法 应用CUSUM模型,对北京市2014年至2016年流感监测数据进行预警分析,并与流感病原学“金标准”判断流行高峰和流感流行预警基线的时间进行比较.结果 2014-2015监测年,CUSUM模型在2014年第46周发出预警,较“金标准”流行起始时间提起前1周,较ILI％预警基线提前3周.2015-2016监测年,CUSUM模型在2015年第46周发出预警,较“金标准”流行起始时间提前8周,较ILI％预警基线提前7周.结论 应用CUSUM模型对北京市流感监测数据进行分析,可以及时预警流感流行起始时间.

abstractsObjective To explore the efficiency of Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) model for detecting the onset of the epidemic of influenza.Methods CUSUM model was used to analyze the influenza surveillance data of Beijing from 2014 to 2016,and the predicted starting time of the epidemic peaks was compared with the results from "gold standard" methods in which the time was judged by the result of influenza laboratory surveillance and the baseline of influenza early-warning.Results During the influenza season in 2014-2015,the result of CUSUM model issued the warning in the 46th week of 2014,which was 1 week earlier than the "gold standard" method and was 3 week earlier than early-warning based on ILI％ baseline of influenza.During the 2015-2016 season,the CUSUM model issued the warning in the 46th week of 2015,which was 8 week before the "gold standard" method and was 7 week before early-warning based on ILI％ baseline of influenza.Conclusions It could give a prediction and early warning for the influenza epidemic by using CUSUM model in the analysis of the influenza surveillance data in Beijing.