汕头市艾滋病流行特征及时空聚集性分析(2014—2023年)
Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of HIV/AIDS in Shantou City, 2014-2023
摘要目的:了解2014—2023年汕头市HIV感染者和AIDS病例的时空分布特征,为制定有效的HIV/AIDS防控策略提供科学依据。方法:收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统中2014—2023年汕头市HIV/AIDS报告病例信息,采用流行病学分析、空间自相关分析、时空扫描统计分析方法,分析汕头市HIV/AIDS流行特征及时空聚集性。结果:2014—2023年汕头市共报告HIV/AIDS 2 433例,年均报告发病率为4.43/10万。全局自相关分析结果显示,HIV/AIDS在汕头市街道(镇)尺度上呈空间正相关(Moran’s I=0.495, P<0.001)。局部自相关和时空扫描统计分析显示汕头市HIV/AIDS"高-高"聚集区主要位于中心城区范围,2016—2020年存在1个时空聚集区[对数似然比( LLR)=136.15,相对危险度( RR)=2.34, P<0.001]。异性传播途径感染的病例( LLR=93.46, RR=3.29, P<0.001)、青年病例( LLR=33.07, RR=2.78, P<0.001)均在中心城区发生时空聚集性,同性传播途径感染的病例进一步向北蔓延至澄海区( LLR=78.45, RR=2.78, P<0.001),老年病例在新溪镇一类聚集( LLR=30.65, RR=34.92, P<0.001),在陈店镇和仙城镇二类聚集( LLR=9.66, RR=4.71, P=0.030)。 结论:2014—2023年汕头市HIV/AIDS疫情在中心城区具有明显的时空聚集性,总体呈现中部高于其他区域的特征,且不同传播途径、不同人群的聚集性存在区域差异性。
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abstractsObjective:To explore the temporal-spatial clustering of HIV/AIDS from 2014 to 2023 in Shantou City, so as to provide a scientific basis for conducting effective control strategies.Methods:The epidemic data of HIV/AIDS from 2014 to 2023 was collected from Chinese Disease Control and Prevention System. Epidemiological analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal scan statistics were conducted to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of HIV/AIDS.Results:A total of 2 433 HIV/ADIS cases were reported in Shantou City from 2014 to 2023. The annual average incidence was 4.43 per 100 000. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis demonstrated that positive spatial autocorrelation of HIV/AIDS was observed at street (town) level (Moran’s I=0.495, P<0.001). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal scanning statistical analysis showed that "high-high" clustering areas of HIV/AIDS were mainly in central urban area in Shantou, and there was one spatiotemporal clustering area from 2016 to 2020 [log-likelihood ratio ( LLR)=136.15, relative risk ( RR)=2.34, P<0.001]. Spatiotemporal clustering of heterosexual transmission ( LLR=93.46, RR=3.29, P<0.001) and youth ( LLR=33.07, RR=2.78, P<0.001) occurred in the central urban area, while homosexual transmission further covered to Chenghai District ( LLR=78.45, RR=2.78, P<0.001). Class 1 clustering of elderly occurred in Xinxi town ( LLR=30.65, RR=34.92, P<0.001), as well as class 2 clustering in Chendian town and Xiancheng town ( LLR=9.66, RR=4.71, P=0.030). Conclusions:A significant spatiotemporal clustering of HIV/AIDS was shown in Shantou City from 2014 to 2023. The clustering of central region is higher than other areas, with regional variations in clustering observed across different transmission routes and population groups.
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