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Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic:applications and challenges

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摘要Since late 2019,the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policy making.Here,we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission,sum-marized transmission dynamics models into three main types:compartment extension,parameter extension and population-stratified extension models,highlight the key contribution of transmission dynamics models in COVID-19 pandemic:estimating epidemiological parameters,pre-dicting the future trend,evaluating the effectiveness of control measures and exploring different possibilities/scenarios.Finally,we pointed out the limitations and challenges lie ahead of transmission dynamics models.

作者 Jinxing Guan ^[1] Yang Zhao ^[2] Yongyue Wei ^[3] Sipeng Shen ^[1] Dongfang You ^[1] Ruyang Zhang ^[1] Theis Lange ^[4] Feng Chen ^[5] 学术成果认领

作者单位 Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu,China ^[1] Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,Jiangsu,China;China International Cooperation Center for Environment and Human Health,Center for Global Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,Jiangsu,China;Center of Biomedical BigData,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,Jiangsu,China ^[2] Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu,China;China International Cooperation Center for Environment and Human Health,Center for Global Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu,China ^[3] Department of Public Health,University of Copenhagen,Copenhagen,Denmark ^[4] Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,Jiangsu,China;China International Cooperation Center for Environment and Human Health,Center for Global Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,Jiangsu,China ^[5]

关键词 compartment model coronavirus disease 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia SEIR SIR transmission dy-namics model

DOI 10.1515/mr-2021-0022

发布时间 2023-07-27（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）