摘要目的 对比分析近年来山西省与全国布鲁杆菌病(简称布病)疫情流行情况,预测布病疫情发展趋势,为布病疫情监测与防控提供参考.方法 收集山西省2006年1月至2010年12月布病疫情月报告资料和中国疾病预防控制中心2005年1月至2010年12月发布的全国布病疫情报告资料,根据布病的逐年增长量、发展速度、增长速度等指标,比较山西省和全国近年来布病疫情流行现状.利用布病疫情月报告发病人数,拟合时间序列自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA),通过对拟合效果的验证,预测山西省和全国未来2年内的布病发病状况.结果 山西省布病疫情2008年达到高峰,新发病例5397例,较2007年增加了900例,从2008年后发病人数下降,2010年下降了17.67％(906/5128)；全国布病发病人数从2006 - 2009年一直呈上升趋势,在2007-2008年迅速增长,增长速度高达39.16％(8442/21 560),虽然2010年布病的发病人数比2009年下降了2041例,但下降速度仅为5.14％(2041/37 734)；无论山西省还是全国,5-7月均为布病发病的高峰期.拟合时间序列ARIMA模型,成功地获得了山西省和全国的ARIMA模型[(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12、(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12].验证模型的拟合效果显示,两个ARIMA模型对布病发病人数预测值的动态趋势与实际情况基本一致,全部落到了预测值的95％可信限内,模型拟合效果良好.模型预测结果显示,在未来2年内,山西省布病的发病人数总体趋势基本平稳,没有出现大的变动；全国布病发病人数在2011年和2012年预计出现小幅度的回升,每年的5-7月份是布病发病的高峰期.结论 山西省布病控制措施得力,布病发病人数呈下降趋势；ARIMA模型预测布病疫情效果好,可以为下一步疫情预测与评价提供有价值的参考.

abstractsObjective To analyze the Brucellosis incidence and to predict the trends of the disease in Shanxi province and the national in recent years,which could provide the reference for surveillance,prevention and control of the disease.Methods Brucellosis data which was reported monthly during January 2006 and December 2010 in Shanxi province and the data released by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention during January 2005 and December 2010 were collected.Several indexes,such as the annual increasing number,the development rate,growth rate and other indicators were applied to compare Shanxi province with the national Brucellosis epidemic in recent years.What's more,the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was fitted respectively with the data of Brucellosis incident number reported monthly,so as to predict the prevalence status in the coming two years by verifying the fitting effect.Results Brucellosis prevalence of Shanxi province reached the peak in 2008,and the incidence number was 5397,which was 900 more than 2007.From the onset of decline after 2008,the prevalence decreased by 17.67％ (906/5128) in 2010.However,national incidence of Brucellosis kept increasing before 2009 and the prevalence increased rapidly from 2007 to 2008,and the growth rate reached 39.16％ (8442/21 560).Although the number of Brucellosis fell by 2041 cases in 2010 than in 2009,the rate of decline was only 5.14％(2041/37 734).The fastigium of Brucellosis was from May to July yearly whether Shanxi province or the country.The ARIMA models of Shanxi province and the nation were ARIMA [(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12] and ARIMA[(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12],respectively,according to the incidence numbers reported monthly.The fitting effect of models showed that the predicted values of the two models were both consistent with the actual situation and all predicted values fell within the 95％ confidence limits,which depicted that they both fitted well.The predicted values depict that the incidence of Brucellosis overall trend was basically stable in Shanxi province,while the numbers in the nation would increase in a small extent in 2011 and 2012.The fastigium of Brucellosis was still from May to July yearly.Conclusions Brucellosis control measures are effective in Shanxi province,incidence of Brucellosis declining.The ARIMA model could predict the number of Brucellosis well,which can provide a valuable reference for the predication and evaluation of Brucellosis epidemic in the future.