摘要目的:分析宁夏回族自治区中卫市人间布鲁氏菌病（布病）发病情况及空间分布特征，并对其发病趋势进行预测，为早期防控布病提供理论依据。方法:采用回顾性研究方法，自"中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统"收集2018—2023年中卫市人间布病报告病例个案数据，采用ArcGIS 10.8软件进行空间聚集性分析；建立以月为时间序列的拟合方程，并基于拟合值经移动平均值、标准差等计算变量值，对发病趋势进行预测、预警。结果:2018—2023年中卫市共报告布病病例3 978例，年均发病率为57.93/10万，且发病率呈逐年上升趋势（χ 2趋势 = 638.33， P < 0.001）。空间自相关分析结果显示，2018—2023年中卫市布病发病率全局莫兰指数（Moran′s I）分别为0.042 9（ P > 0.05）、- 0.095 5（ P > 0.05）、0.021 6（ P > 0.05）、0.094 5（ P > 0.05）、0.236 1（ P < 0.05）、0.164 1（ P > 0.05）；其中，2020—2023年中卫市人间布病发病率存在"高-高"聚集区，主要分布在中部地区，包括中宁县的喊叫水乡、徐套乡和沙坡头区的香山乡、宣和镇。时间序列分析结果显示，2024年中卫市人间布病的发病高峰为5—8月，预测病例数分别为109、114、111、105例。 结论:2018—2023年中卫市人间布病发病率呈逐年上升趋势，应在布病疫情高发月份前加强对聚集乡镇的健康宣教工作。

abstractsObjective:To analyze the incidence and spatial distribution characteristics of human brucellosis in Zhongwei City, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, and predict its incidence trend, so as to provide a theoretical basis for early prevention and control of brucellosis.Methods:Using a retrospective study method, case data of human brucellosis reported in Zhongwei City from 2018 to 2023 were collected from the "Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System". Spatial clustering analysis was conducted using ArcGIS 10.8 software. A fitting equation with month as the time series was established, and variable values were calculated based on the fitted values using moving averages, standard deviations, etc., to predict and warn of disease trends.Results:From 2018 to 2023, 3 978 brucellosis cases were reported in Zhongwei City, with an average annual incidence rate of 57.93/100 000. The incidence rate increased year by year (χ 2trend = 638.33, P < 0.001). The results of spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the global Moran's I of the incidence rate of brucellosis in Zhongwei City from 2018 to 2023 were 0.042 9 ( P > 0.05), - 0.095 5 ( P > 0.05), 0.021 6 ( P > 0.05), 0.094 5 ( P > 0.05), 0.236 1 ( P < 0.05), and 0.164 1 ( P > 0.05), respectively. From 2020 to 2023, there were "high-high" clustering areas of brucellosis incidence rate, mainly distributed in the central part of Zhongwei City, including Hanjiaoshui Township and Xutao Township in Zhongning County, and Xiangshan Township and Xuanhe Town in Shapotou District. The time series analysis results showed that the peak of human brucellosis incidence in Zhongwei City in 2024 was from May to August, with predicted cases of 109, 114, 111, and 105, respectively. Conclusions:From 2018 to 2023, the reported incidence rate of brucellosis in Zhongwei City is on the rise year by year. Health education should be strengthened in clustering towns before the month of high incidence of brucellosis.