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Rapid range expansion predicted for the Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula) in the near future under climate change scenarios

摘要Background: Climate change due to anthropogenic global warming is the most important factor that will affect future range distribution of species and will shape future biogeographic patterns. While much effort has been expended in understanding how climate change will affect rare and declining species we have less of an understand-ing of the likely consequences for some abundant species. The Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula; Linnaeus 1758), though declining in portions of its range, is a widespread blackbird (Icteridae) species in North America east of the Rocky Mountains. This study examined how climate change might affect the future range distribution of Common Grackles. Methods: We used the R package Wallace and six general climate models (ACCESS1-0, BCC-CSM1-1, CESM1-CAM5-1-FV2, CNRM-CM5, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR) available for the future (2070) to identify climatically suitable areas, with an ecological niche modelling approach that includes the use of environmental conditions. Results: Future projections suggested a significant expansion from the current range into northern parts of North America and Alaska, even under more optimistic climate change scenarios. Additionally, there is evidence of possible future colonization of islands in the Caribbean as well as coastal regions in eastern Central America. The most impor-tant bioclimatic variables for model predictions were Annual Mean Temperature, Temperature Seasonality, Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter and Annual Precipitation. Conclusions: The results suggest that the Common Grackle could continue to expand its range in North America over the next 50 years. This research is important in helping us understand how climate change will affect future range patterns of widespread, common bird species.

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作者 Peter Capainolo [1] Utku Perkta? [2] Mark D.E.Fellowes [3] 学术成果认领
作者单位 Division of Vertebrate Zoology-Department of Ornithology,American Museum of Natural History,Central Park West@79th Street,New York,NY 10024-5192,USA;People and Wildlife Research Group,School of Biological Sciences,University of Reading,Whiteknights,Reading RG66AS,UK [1] Division of Vertebrate Zoology-Department of Ornithology,American Museum of Natural History,Central Park West@79th Street,New York,NY 10024-5192,USA;Depart-ment of Biology(Zoology Section,Biogeography Research Laboratory),Faculty of Science,Hacettepe University,Beytepe,06800 Ankara,Turkey [2] People and Wildlife Research Group,School of Biological Sciences,University of Reading,Whiteknights,Reading RG66AS,UK [3]
发布时间 2022-01-07(万方平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)
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鸟类学研究(英文版)

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