摘要目的:建立改良支架置入术后降低血管成形术后期并发症危险评分（CADILLAC）系统，比较改良CADILLAC、全球急性冠状动脉事件注册评分（GRACE）、心肌梗死溶栓治疗危险评分（TIMI）3种评分对急性ST段抬高心肌梗死（STEMI）经皮冠脉介入治疗（PCI）术后近期死亡风险的预测价值。方法:采用回顾性研究方法，收集2019年9月至2020年12月贵州省人民医院急诊内科经急诊胸痛快速通道收治心内科住院的169例STEMI并行PCI患者的临床资料。用多因素Logistic回归分析筛选出STEMI患者PCI术后30 d内与病情危重程度密切相关的因素，并参考CADILLAC评分设置，建立改良CADILLAC评分系统。分别计算患者入院后改良CADILLAC、GRACE及TIMI评分分值，并记录患者发病后30 d内因心血管疾病（CVD）死亡的病例数。用受试者工作特征曲线（ROC曲线）评价3种评分系统对STEMI患者行PCI术后30 d内死亡风险的预测价值。结果:169例STEMI患者PCI术后30 d内因CVD共死亡16例，实际病死率为9.47%。多因素Logistic回归分析显示，年龄>75岁、心功能Killip分级≥Ⅲ级、室性心律失常、ST段抬高≥0.2 mV、心肌肌钙蛋白I（cTnI）增高、收缩压（SBP）<90 mmHg（1 mmHg≈0.133 kPa）均是STEMI患者PCI术后死亡的独立预测因素。以上述预测因素联合左室射血分数（LVEF）<0.40构建改良CADILLAC评分系统。死亡患者GRACE、TIMI及改良CADILLAC评分均明显高于存活患者〔GRACE评分（分）：197.60±31.83比149.81±36.72，TIMI评分（分）：11.21±2.13比7.27±1.97，改良CADILLAC评分（分）：12.60±2.52比6.96±2.17，均 P<0.05〕。3种评分危险分层越高，患者PCI术后30 d内因CVD的病死率越高〔GRACE评分低危、中危、高危患者的病死率分别为2.41%（2/83）、9.61%（5/52）、26.47%（9/34），TIMI评分低危、中危、高危患者的病死率分别为3.12%（3/96）、12.82%（5/39）、23.53%（8/34），改良CADILLAC评分低危、中危、高危患者的病死率分别为3.19%（3/94）、7.69%（4/52）、39.13%（9/23），均 P<0.01〕。GRACE、TIMI及改良CADILLAC评分预测STEMI患者PCI术后30 d死亡风险的ROC曲线下面积（AUC）分别为0.855〔95%可信区间（95% CI）为0.702~0.923〕、0.725（95% CI为0.666~0.812）和0.882（95% CI为0.732~0.936），均 P＝0.000；其预测准确性的敏感度分别为81.59%、78.65%、89.26%，特异度分别为78.62%、57.12%、75.54%。 结论:GRACE和改良CADILLAC评分对STEMI患者PCI术后近期死亡风险有预测价值，且改良CADILLAC评分预测更为准确；而TIMI评分对STEMI患者PCI术后近期死亡风险的预测作用较差。

abstractsObjective:To establish a modified controlled abciximab and device investigation to lower late angioplasty complication (CADILLAC) score, and to compare the predictive value of modified CADILLAC score, the global registry of acute coronary event (GRACE) score and the thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) score in predicting the risk of short-term death after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).Methods:A retrospective study was conducted. The clinical data of 169 STEMI patients under going PCI admitted to the department of cardiology of Guizhou Provincial People's Hospital from September 2019 to December 2020 through emergency chest pain fast track were enrolled. A multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the factors closely related to the mortality risk within 30 days of STEMI, and a modified CADILLAC scoring system was established by referring to CADILLAC scoring settings. The score of modified CADILLAC, GRACE and TIMI scores of patients were calculated after admission, and the number of deaths due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) within 30 days after onset was recorded. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to evaluate the predictive value of three scoring systems on the risk of death within 30 days after PCI in patients with STEMI.Results:In 169 STEMI patients, 16 patients died of CVD within 30 days after PCI, and the actual case mortality was 9.47%. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age > 75 years old, cardiac function Killip ≥ Grade Ⅲ, ventricular arrhythmia, ST segment elevation ≥ 0.2 mV, cardiac troponin I (cTnI) increase, systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 90 mmHg (1 mmHg ≈ 0.133 kPa) were all independent predictors of death after PCI in STEMI patients. The improved CADILLAC scoring system was constructed based on the above predictive factors combined with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) less than 0.40. The GRACE, TIMI and modified CADILLAC scores of dead patients were significantly higher than those of survival patients (GRACE score: 197.60±31.83 vs. 149.81±36.72, TIMI score: 11.21±2.13 vs. 7.27±1.97, modified CADILLAC score: 12.60±2.52 vs. 6.96±2.17, all P < 0.05). The higher the risk stratification of the three scores, the higher the mortality of patients with CVD within 30 days after PCI [the mortality of patients with low, medium and high risk in GRACE score were 2.41% (2/83), 9.61% (5/52) and 26.47% (9/34); the mortality of patients with low, medium and high risk in TIMI score were 3.12% (3/96), 12.82% (5/39) and 23.53% (8/34); and the mortality of patients with low, medium and high risk in modified CADILLAC score were 3.19% (3/94), 7.69% (4/52) and 39.13% (9/23), respectively, all P < 0.01]. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the GRACE, TIMI and the modified CADILLAC scores predicting the risk of death 30 days after PCI in STEMI patients were 0.855 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 0.702-0.923], 0.725 (95% CI was 0.666-0.812) and 0.882 (95% CI was 0.732-0.936), respectively, all P = 0.000; the sensitivity of its prediction accuracy were 81.59%, 78.65% and 89.26%, and the specificity were 78.62%, 57.12% and 75.54%, respectively. Conclusions:The GRACE and the modified CADILLAC scores have predictive value for the short-term mortality risk of STEMI patients after PCI, and the modified CADILLAC score is more accurate. But the TIMI score has a poor predictive effect on the short-term mortality risk of STEMI patients after PCI.