摘要目的 探讨5～9岁儿童对常见疾病发生的预测及预测原因的认知发展.方法 选用儿童常见疾病,设计故事情景,考察120名儿童对疾病发生的预测,并对其预测原因进行分析.结果 5岁、7岁、9岁三组儿童对疾病发生的不确定性预测(34.2%,52.5%,73.3%)差异有显著性(χ2(2)= 50.134,P ＜0.01);他们对疾病的预测原因差异有显著性(χ2(6)= 95.781, P ＜0.01);教育条件不同的2组三年级儿童对疾病发生的不确定性预测和预测原因差异均有显著性意义(χ2(1)= 11.162, P ＜0.01;χ2(3)= 35.043, P ＜0.01).结论 在已知一个可能病因时,部分5岁儿童已能够做出疾病发生不确定性的判断;儿童对疾病发生不确定性的认知是朴素生物学的;5岁到9岁儿童预测疾病时经历了由单因性质判断和单因程度判断策略到多因综合判断的发展过程;教育条件对儿童的疾病认知有显著影响.

abstractsObjective To study the development of children's understanding the probabilities of the causes of illness.Methods 120 5-to 9-year-old children were interviewed via open-ended items and forced choices about illness. Results There were statistical significance in their understanding of the probabilities of the causes of illness and their strategies of prediction among the three groups(χ2(2)= 50.134,P ＜0.01;χ2(6)= 95.781, P ＜0.01);in addition, there was statistical significance between the two educational backgrounds (χ2(1)= 11.162, P ＜0.01;χ2(3)= 35.043, P ＜0.01). Conclusion Some preschool-aged children viewed outcomes of familiar causes of illness as probabilistic. The children's understanding of the causes' probabilities appeared to be based on naive biology. 5- to 9-year-old children made probabilistic predictions from a single cause to multiple causes. Children coming from higher educational backgrounds outperformed their counterparts coming from lower educational backgrounds with respect to understanding illness.