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Performance and comparison of assessment models to predict 30-day mortality in patients with hospital-acquired pneumonia

Performance and comparison of assessment models to predict 30-day mortality in patients with hospital-acquired pneumonia

摘要Background::Hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) is the most common hospital-acquired infection in China with substantial morbidity and mortality. But no specific risk assessment model has been well validated in patients with HAP. The aim of this study was to investigate the published risk assessment models that could potentially be used to predict 30-day mortality in HAP patients in non-surgical departments.Methods::This study was a single-center, retrospective study. In total, 223 patients diagnosed with HAP from 2012 to 2017 were included in this study. Clinical and laboratory data during the initial 24 hours after HAP diagnosis were collected to calculate the pneumonia severity index (PSI); consciousness, urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age ≥65 years (CURB-65); Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II); Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA); and Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores. The discriminatory power was tested by constructing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and the areas under the curve (AUCs) were calculated.Results::The all-cause 30-day mortality rate was 18.4% (41/223). The PSI, CURB-65, SOFA, APACHE II, and qSOFA scores were significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors (all P < 0.001). The discriminatory abilities of the APACHE II and SOFA scores were better than those of the CURB-65 and qSOFA scores (ROC AUC: APACHE II vs. CURB-65, 0.863 vs. 0.744, Z = 3.055, P= 0.002; APACHE II vs. qSOFA, 0.863 vs. 0.767, Z= 3.017, P= 0.003; SOFA vs. CURB-65, 0.856 vs. 0.744, Z= 2.589 , P = 0.010; SOFA vs. qSOFA, 0.856 vs. 0.767, Z = 2.170, P = 0.030). The cut-off values we defined for the SOFA, APACHE II, and qSOFA scores were 4, 14, and 1. Conclusions::These results suggest that the APACHE II and SOFA scores determined during the initial 24 h after HAP diagnosis may be useful for the prediction of 30-day mortality in HAP patients in non-surgical departments. The qSOFA score may be a simple tool that can be used to quickly identify severe infections.

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abstractsBackground::Hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) is the most common hospital-acquired infection in China with substantial morbidity and mortality. But no specific risk assessment model has been well validated in patients with HAP. The aim of this study was to investigate the published risk assessment models that could potentially be used to predict 30-day mortality in HAP patients in non-surgical departments.Methods::This study was a single-center, retrospective study. In total, 223 patients diagnosed with HAP from 2012 to 2017 were included in this study. Clinical and laboratory data during the initial 24 hours after HAP diagnosis were collected to calculate the pneumonia severity index (PSI); consciousness, urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age ≥65 years (CURB-65); Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II); Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA); and Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores. The discriminatory power was tested by constructing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and the areas under the curve (AUCs) were calculated.Results::The all-cause 30-day mortality rate was 18.4% (41/223). The PSI, CURB-65, SOFA, APACHE II, and qSOFA scores were significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors (all P < 0.001). The discriminatory abilities of the APACHE II and SOFA scores were better than those of the CURB-65 and qSOFA scores (ROC AUC: APACHE II vs. CURB-65, 0.863 vs. 0.744, Z = 3.055, P= 0.002; APACHE II vs. qSOFA, 0.863 vs. 0.767, Z= 3.017, P= 0.003; SOFA vs. CURB-65, 0.856 vs. 0.744, Z= 2.589 , P = 0.010; SOFA vs. qSOFA, 0.856 vs. 0.767, Z = 2.170, P = 0.030). The cut-off values we defined for the SOFA, APACHE II, and qSOFA scores were 4, 14, and 1. Conclusions::These results suggest that the APACHE II and SOFA scores determined during the initial 24 h after HAP diagnosis may be useful for the prediction of 30-day mortality in HAP patients in non-surgical departments. The qSOFA score may be a simple tool that can be used to quickly identify severe infections.

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作者 Wen Jia-Ning [1] Li Nan [2] Guo Chen-Xia [1] Shen Ning [1] He Bei [1] 学术成果认领
作者单位 Department of Respiratory Medicine, Peking University Third Hospital, Beijing 100191, China [1] Research Center of Clinical Epidemiology, Peking University Third Hospital, Beijing 100191, China [2]
栏目名称 Original Article
DOI 10.1097/CM9.0000000000001252
发布时间 2025-02-25
基金项目
University of Michigan Health System-Peking University Health Science Center Joint Institute for Translational and Clinical Research and Peking University Third Hospital
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中华医学杂志英文版

中华医学杂志英文版

2020年133卷24期

2947-2952页

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