摘要目的 通过了解湖南省20年职防机构人员状况,对未来几年人力资源情况进行预测,为全省及其他地区优化职业病防治人力资源的规划,提升其服务能力提供科学依据与参考.方法 在已建立的湖南省职防机构基本信息管理系统中抽取有关人员资料,对1996至2015年人员数量和构成的动态变化进行描述分析,采用灰色模型GM(1,1)进行人员情况预测.结果 湖南省1996年职防机构人员为1591人,至2015年为1429人.20年间,人员构成从"中专与无专业学历"为主转变至以"本科及以上与专科学历"为主,以"其他专业"为主至以"公共卫生与临床医学"为中坚力量,由无职称人员占比超三分之一至仅占5%左右且高级、中级、初级职称均稳步上升的状况.预测显示,2018年和2020年职防机构高学历人员构成比将分别达41.00%和45.61%,公卫人员构成比将分别达44.15%和46.60%.结论 湖南省20年职防机构人员数量变化不大,人员质量有了很大的提升,有利于职防事业的可持续发展;未来5年人员学历及专业构成将进一步得到优化.

abstractsObjective To analyze the status of personnel in occupational disease prevention and treatment institutions in Hunan Province,China,from 1996 to 2015,to predict staff composition using grey model(GM) (1,1), and to provide a scientific basis and reference for optimizing human resource planning of occupational disease prevention and treatment in other provinces and regions and promoting the service capacity of the institutions. Methods The data of the staff in occupational disease prevention and treatment institutions in Hunan Province,China,from 1996 to 2015 were obtained from the established basic information management system. The descriptive analysis method was used to analyze the dynamic changes in number and composition of the staff and the GM(1,1)was used to predict the staff composition.Results The numbers of the staff members in 1996 and 2015 in occupational disease prevention and treatment institutions in Hunan Province,China were 1591 and 1429, respectively. In the twenty years, the main education level of the staff transformed from "technical secondary school education and non-academic qualifications"to"bachelor degree or above and college degree";the main major of the staff transformed from "other majors" to "public health and clinical medicine"; the proportion of the staff members without professional titles changed from>1/3 to 5%;and the proportions of the staff members with senior,intermediate,and junior professional titles were steadily rising.GM prediction showed that the proportions of highly educated staff members in 2018 and 2020 would be up to 41.00% and 45.61%, respectively;and the proportions of the staff members with a major in public health in 2018 and 2020 would be up to 44.15% and 46.60%, respectively. Conclusion The staff in occupational disease prevention and treatment institutions in Hunan Province,China,in the twenty years have slight changes in staff size and great improvement in staff quality, which is beneficial to sustainable development of the occupational disease prevention and treatment undertakings.The education level and major will be further optimized in the next five years.