摘要目的 基于2006至2015年报告数据对广东省职业病的流行情况和发病趋势进行分析预测,为开展职业病风险评估和精准防控提供科学依据.方法 对广东省2006至2015年报告职业病的例数、病种构成比、发病年龄和发病工龄进行统计学描述,以诊断年为自变量,使用曲线拟合方法分别对病新发病例数、发病工龄中位数、发病年龄中位数进行线性趋势检验,建立ARIMA模型对广东省2017-2020年职业病变化趋势进行预测.结果 (1)2006至2015年,广东省报告职业病5289例,职业性尘肺病2101例,占39.7％,职业中毒1363例,占25.8％,职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病864例,占16.3％.(2)职业病例数呈直线上升趋势(R2=0.851),尘肺病例数呈直线上升趋势(R2=0.856),职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病例数呈指数上升趋势(R2=0.914),职业性肿瘤报告例数呈指数增长趋势(R2=0.696).职业中毒构成比有降低趋势,职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病构成比有升高趋势.(3)职业病平均发病年龄为40(33,46)岁,平均发病工龄为为6(3,11)年,均呈直线上升趋势(R2=0.954、R2=0.792),尘肺、职业中毒、职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病发病年龄呈上升趋势.尘肺和慢性职业中毒发病工龄呈上升趋势.(4)预测2017至2020年职业病发病例数在902-1231例之间.结论 广东省职业病呈高发趋势,职业病发病年龄和发病工龄呈延长趋势,可依据广东省职业病流行趋势开展职业病风险评估和精准防控工作.

abstractsObjective This study was aimed to analyze the epidemic trend and predict the incidence trend of occupational diseases during 2006-2015 in Guangdong province,which may provide the theoretical foundation for occupational disease risk assessment and precise control and prevention.Methods We analyzed the number of reported occupational disease cases,the constituent ratio,the average age and working-age of patients.We also performed the linear-by-linear association test of new incidence,median age and median working-age by curve-fitting method,of which the diagnostic year was set as the independent variable.Meanwhile,we designed an ARIMA model to predict the variation tendency of occupational diseases in 2017-2020.Results (1) During 2006-2015,the total reported cases of occupational disease is 5289,including 2101 cases of occupational pneumoconiosis(39.7％),1363 cases of occupational poisoning(25.8％),and 864 cases of occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease (16.3％).(2) The number of occupational diseases and pneumoconiosis have a straight upward trend (R2=0.851,R2=0.856),while the number of occupational otolaryngoIogical and stomatological disease and occupational tumor have a exponential trend (R2=0.914,R2=0.696).The constituent ratio of occupational poisoning is decreasing,and the constituent ratio of occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease is increasing.(3) The average onset age is 40 (33,46) years old,and the average onset working-age is 6 (3,11) years.Both of them have a straight upward trend (R2 =0.954、R2=0.792).The onset age of pneumoconiosis,occupational poisoning and occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease have a upward trend.In addition,the onset working-age of occupational poisoning and pneumoconiosis have a upward trend.(4) The number of occupational diseases in 2017-2020 is predicted to be between 902-1231.Conclusion Occupational diseases in Guangdong province showed a trend of high incidence.The age and working-age of occupational diseases showed an extended trend.Therefore,our work of occupational epidemic trend may provide some bases for the occupational disease risk assessment and precise control and prevention.