摘要目的 基于某省2006～2015年矽肺报告数据,探讨矽肺分布特征和流行趋势,为开展职业病风险评估和精准防控提供科学依据.方法 用SPSS 20.0统计分析软件对2006～2015年某省报告的矽肺病例进行描述性分析,病例数、病例构成比、发病工龄、发病年龄的趋势分析采取线性趋势检验.地区分布、行业分布、经济类型分布、企业规模的变化趋势分析采取卡方趋势检验.采用Arc GIS12.0软件进行自相关分析和趋势面分析.结果 2006～2015年,某省报告矽肺病例1 428例,其中男性1 391例,占97.41％,平均发病年龄为45(39,51)岁,平均发病工龄为9(5.5,15)年,主要集中在佛山、深圳、中山、广州地区(841例,占58.89％).以私有经济为主(占59.1％),以中、小企业为主(32.4％和37.3％),以建材业和矿产业为主(32.1％和22.9％).病例数、发病年龄、发病工龄呈上升趋势,中型企业构成比呈增高趋势,建材行业构成比呈增高趋势,差异有统计学意义(P＜0.05).地区、经济类型和年龄分布的年度变化趋势无统计学意义(P＞0.05).某省矽肺非随机分布并具有空间相关性,呈现由南往北、由东向西均逐渐升高后降低,倒U型的分布趋势.禅城、南海、顺德、番禺、东莞、蓬江、中山等地区呈高-高聚集,五华呈高-低离散型,差异有统计学意义(P＜0.05).结论 某省2006～2015年矽肺病例数、发病年龄和发病工龄呈上升趋势,职业病行业分布和企业规模分布呈现一定变化趋势.空间分布上存在高-高聚集和高低离散的现象并具有空间相关性.应依据某省矽肺的流行趋势和分布规律开展矽肺风险评估和防控工作.

abstractsObjective To investigate the characteristics,temporal trend of silicosis,and provide basis for risk assessment and precise prevention and control of occupational diseases.Methods Using descriptive statistics to analyze the reported cases of silicosis by SPSS 20.0 software.Repotted silicosis cases,the constituent ratio,the incidence age and the working age at onset were analyzed by a linear trend test.Analyzing the variation trends of regional,industry,economic type and enterprise scale distributions by the chi-square trend test.Moreover,using Moran's I method for spatial autocorrelation analysis and trend-surface analysis.Results (1) During 2006 to 2015,Guangdong province had reported 1,428 cases of silicosis,mainly gathered in Foshan,Zhongshan,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,which included 1391 male cases accounting for 97.41％.And the average incidence age was 45 (39,51).The average working age of onset was 9 (5.5,15).In economic type distribution,the private economy took the main part,accounting for 59.1％.In enterprise scale distribution,it was dominated by small and medium enterprises (SMEs),accounting for 32.4％ and 37.3％ respectively.In industry distribution,most cases were gathered in materials and mining industry,accounting for 32.1％ and 22.9％ respectively.(2) The number of silicosis cases,the incidence age and the working age of onset showed a rising trend (P＜0.01).Meanwhile,the constituent ratios of medium-sized enterprises and building materials industry were increasing (P＜0.05).The annual variation trends of regional,economic type and age distributions were not statistically significant (P＞ 0.05).(3) The spatial distribution trend showed an inverted U type,which was firstly raised and then declined from south to north and from east to west.The distribution characteristic demonstrated some high-high cluster areas,including Chancheng,Nanhai,Shunde,Panyu,Dongguan,Pengjiang,and Zhongshan.While Wuhua showed a high-low outlier form (P＜0.01).Conclusion Silicosis cases,age and working age of onset were on the rise,as well as the industry and enterprise scale distributions of occupational diseases presented a certain trend in Guangdong province from 2006 to 2015.There were high-high cluster and high-low outlier phenomena in spatial distribution with spatial correlation.Therefore,our work of silicosis epidemic trend and distribution may provide some bases for the occupational disease risk assessment and control.