摘要目的 分析深圳市近年来老年性病的现状并探讨其时空分布的特点,同时建立深圳市老年性病发病的预测模型.为政府性病投入等政策提供参考.方法 利用2005-2009年深圳市性病监测系统数据,对50岁以上老年人梅毒和淋病大的发病现状进行分析,并利用SaTScan软件对老年男性淋病和一期及二期梅毒的时空分布进行分析,利用Eviews5.0建立性病的发病模型.结果 (1)2005-2009年深圳市50岁以上老年人两种性病的报告发病数呈上升趋势,男性比女性上升更加明显,年龄分组中60岁以上组与50～59岁组上升速度基本相同,病种中梅毒比淋病上升快.(2)老年男性的淋病和一期及二期梅毒的时空分布分析表明,2005年的莲花和梅林街道出现了老年男性性病的聚集(P=0.026,RR=2.13).(3)ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,0,1)12模型是适合对深圳市老年男性一期和二期梅毒进行预测的模型.结论 老年人可能成为性病传播的中间环节,应重视对老年人的性健康问题的监测.

abstractsObjective To analyze the status quo of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) of the elderly in recent years in Shenzhen, to explore the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution,and to establish prediction model of STDs of the elderly in Shenzhen. Methods Using the surveillance system data of STDs from 2005 to 2009 in Shenzhen city, the incidence, temporal and spatial distribution of syphilis and gonorrhea were analyzed in the elderly aged 50 years and over by SaTScan. The incidence prediction model of STDs was established by Eviews 5.0.Results (1)The incidences of the two kinds of STDs from 2005 to 2009 in Shenzhen were on the rise and on more marked increase in male than in female. The rising velocity in over-60 year age group was similar with in 50-59 year age group. The rising velocity of syphilis was faster than gonorrhea. (2)The space-time distribution analysis showed there were clusters of the STDs in elderly men in 2005 in Lianhua and Meilin districts (P = 0. 026, RR= 2.13). (3) ARIMA (0, 1,1) (0,0, 1) 12 model was a suitable forecasting model for STDs in elderly men in Shenzhen. Conclusions