摘要目的:探讨个体化预测老年早期胃癌(EGC)患者内镜黏膜下剥离术(ESD)后复发风险的列线图模型构建。方法:回顾性队列研究。我院消化科2000年1月至2016年12月共收治行ESD治疗的老年EGC患者3 987例，选择临床病理资料和随访资料完整的28例复发患者作为复发组，276例未复发患者作为对照组。调取所有患者一般资料，Logistic回归分析筛选影响EGC患者ESD后复发的独立危险因素，利用R软件建立相应的列线图风险预测模型。结果:3 987例老年EGC患者，平均随访2.7年，29例复发，复发率为0.73%(29/3 987)。复发组和对照组患者的年龄≥75岁[11例(39.3%)比171例(62.0%)]、病变≥3 mm[19例(67.9%)比111例(40.0%)]、T分期黏膜层[9例(32.1%)比153例(55.4%)]和淋巴结转移[19例(67.9%)比102例(39.0%)]比较，差异有统计学意义(均 P< 0.05)。Logistic回归分析结果显示，年龄≥75岁( OR＝2.128，95% CI：1.373~3.624)、T分期( OR＝1.763，95% CI：1.079~2.934)、病变≥3 mm( OR＝2.604，95% CI：1.363~4.217)、淋巴浸润( OR＝2.871，95% CI：1.425~5.639)是EGC患者ESD术后复发的独立危险因素(均 P< 0.05)。基于以上危险因素建立的列线图模型，验证结果显示预测值与实测值基本一致，具有较好的预测性能；内部验证结果显示，一致性指数为0.817(95% CI：0.722~0.941)，提示该模型具有较高的精准度和区分度。 结论:对老年EGC患者行ESD术前，应充分考虑年龄、肿瘤大小、T分期和淋巴浸润等因素，综合评估EGC患者ESD术后的复发率。本预测模型能提高术后复发的诊断效能，具有较高的临床价值。

abstractsObjective:To examine a nomogram model for individualized prediction of the risk for recurrence of early gastric cancer(EGC)in elderly patients undergoing endoscopic submucosal dissection(ESD).Methods:This was a retrospective cohort study, with a total of 3 987 elderly EGC patients who underwent ESD treatment between January 2000 and December 2016 after admission to the gastroenterology department of our hospital.Twenty-eight relapsed patients with complete clinicopathological data and follow-up data were selected as the relapse group, and 276 non-relapsed patients were selected as the control group.General data of all patients were collected and a logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze independent risk factors for the recurrence of EGC in patients after ESD.A corresponding nomogram risk prediction model was established by using the R software.Results:Among the 3 987 elderly EGC patients, 29 relapsed after an average follow-up of 2.7 years, and the recurrence rate was 0.73%(29/3 987). The differences in baseline data such as age(≥75 years old), lesion size(≥3 mm), T stage and lymph node metastasis between the recurrence group and the control group were statistically significant(11 cases or 39.3% vs.171 cases or 62.0%, 19 cases or 67.9% vs.111 cases or 40.0%, 9 cases or 32.1% vs.153 cases or 55.4%, 19 cases or 67.9% vs.102 cases or 39.0%, P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that age over 75 years( OR=2.128, 95% CI: 1.373-3.624), T stage( OR=1.763, 95% CI: 1.079-2.934), lesion size≥3 mm( OR=2.604, 95% CI: 1.363-4.217), and lymph node metastasis( OR=2.871, 95% CI: 1.425-5.639)were independent risk factors for the recurrence after ESD in EGC patients( P<0.05). The nomogram model was established based on the above risk factors, and the validation results showed that the predicted value was basically the same as the actual measured value and had good predictive performance.The internal validation results showed that the consistency index was 0.817(95% CI: 0.722-0.941), suggesting that the model had a high accuracy and discrimination. Conclusions:Before ESD for elderly EGC patients is performed, factors such as age, tumor size, T stage and lymph node metastasis should be fully considered to comprehensively evaluate the recurrence rate of EGC after the procedure.This predictive model can improve the diagnostic efficacy of postoperative recurrence and has high clinical value.