摘要目的 探测广西壮族自治区流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)发病的时空动态趋势.方法 结合地理信息系统中的反距离加权插值方法,应用回顾性时空重排扫描统计量对1989-2006年广西乙脑发病资料进行时空动态趋势分析.结果 反距离加权插值地图直观显示,1989-2006年广西乙脑时空格局可分为4个阶段:1989-1996年高发区聚集在桂东南地区;1997-1998年呈离散分布;1999年高发区又重新聚集到灵山、浦北、博白等桂南地区;2000-2006年高发聚集区转移到桂西北地区.回顾性时空重排扫描统计量探测到3个有统计学意义的时空聚集区:以109°54′E、22°28′N的浦北县为中心,辐射半径45.24 km,集中于1999年的一级时空聚集区(LLR=253.25,P=0.001,RR=4.62);以105°23′E、24°68′N的隆林县为中心,辐射半径199.85km,始于2000年止于2006年的次级时空聚集区(LLR=75.91,P=0.001,RR=1.88);以110°94′E、24°03′N的昭平县为中心,辐射半径229.12 km,始于1989年止于1996年的次级时空聚集区(LLR=46.29,P=0.001,RR=1.16).结论 时空重排扫描统计量结合地理信息系统可定量探测乙脑的时空动态趋势,1989-2006年广西乙脑高发时空聚集性由桂东南及桂南地区向桂西北地区转移.

abstractsObjective To study the spatiotemporal trend of Japanese encephalitis in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region between 1989 and 2006.Methods Retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic and inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation were employed to detect the spatiotemporal trend of Japanese encephalitis in Guangxi,from the year 1989 to 2006.Results The spatiotemporal pattern of Japanese encephalitis was divided into four phases by IDW interpolation maps,from 1989 to 2006.The first phase was spatiotemporal cluster located in southeast region,from 1989 to 1996.The second phase showed discrete distribution from 1997 to 1998.The third phase of spatiotemporal cluster located in Lingshan county,Pubei county and Bobai county,in 1999.And the last phase was spatiotemporal cluster located in northwest region from 2000 to 2006.Three statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters were detected by retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic.The primary cluster appeared in 1999 (LLR=253.25,P=0.001,RR=4.62),with 109°54′ E,22°28′ N (located in Pubei county) as its center and radiated 45.24 km.From 2000 to 2006,the secondary cluster showed in northwest (LLR=75.91,P=0.001,RR = 1.88),with center located at 105°23′ E,24°68′ N (Longlin county),and radiated 199.85 kn.From 1989 to 1996,the other secondary cluster appeared in the southeast area(LLR=46.29,P=0.001,RR= 1.16),with center located at 110°94′ E,24°03′N(Zhaoping county) and radiated 229.12 km.Conclusion Space-time permutation scan statistic and geographical information system could be applied to quantitatively detect the potentially spatiotemporal trend of the disease.The spatiotemporal cluster shifted from southeast to northwest,from 1989 to 2006.