摘要探讨并比较判定传染病发病时间聚集性的五种方法.以郑州市金水区2008-2010年细菌性痢疾发病时间聚集性的判定为例,比较可用于传染病发病时间聚集性分析和判定的聚类分析、游程检验、负二项分布、圆分布、集中度五种方法.聚类分析得出5-9月是发病流行期,8月是发病高峰期;游程检验得出2008和2009年月发病具有聚集性(P＜0.05),2010年发病月分布具有随机性;集中度法得出2008-2010年每年月发病分布均有一定的聚集性,从M值看聚集程度逐年减弱;圆分布法得出2008-2010年每年均具有发病聚集倾向时间(P＜0.01),3年依次为7月11、29日和8月24日;负二项分布拟合得出在年度日发病层面2008和2010年具有聚集性(P＞0.05),2009年不具有聚集性(P＜0.05).五种方法均可用于传染病发病时间聚集性的分析和判定,可根据不同情况选择.[Introduction] To demonstrate and evaluate five different methods in the determination of temporal clustering on infectious diseases.The incidence rates of bacillary dysentery in Jinshui district,Zhengzhou city,Henan province from 2008 to 2010 were analyzed by 5 different methodsCluster Analysis,Runs Test,Negative Binomial Distribution,Circular Distribution and Concentration Ratio.Through Cluster Analysis,data showed that the epidemic period was from May to Sept.with August as the peak.Runs Test confirmed a cluster of month-incidence in 2008 and 2009 (P＜0.05)and a random distribution in 2010.The Concentration Ratio showed a weakened seasonal incidence cluster to a certain extent by M from 2008 to 2010.The Circular Distribution demonstrated an inclining cluster of time (P＜0.01) and it was on July 11th and 29th,as well on August 24th in 2008,2009 and 2010.In terms of day-incidence,the Negative Binomial Distribution presented a cluster in 2008 and 2010,but with no significant difference in 2009.The five above said methods could flexibly be used in determining the temporal clustering of infectious disease at different occasions.