摘要目的 探讨重庆市丙型肝炎(丙肝)发病的空间分布模式及其影响因素.方法 收集重庆市2010年1月至2014年12月38个区/县的丙肝监测数据,应用GeoDa 1.6.7软件对其分别进行空间自相关分析和空间回归分析.结果 2010-2014年重庆市丙肝报告发病率介于7.3/10万～13.6/10万之间,年均报告发病率10.3/10万.全局Moran's J分别为0.478、0.503、0.529、0.438和0.406,P值均＜0.05;局域自相关分析得出,2010年重庆市丙肝发病有6个热点区域,2011年有4个热点区域,2012年有7个热点区域,2013年有5个热点区域,2014年有6个热点区域.空间回归分析显示,重庆市丙肝报告发病率与城镇化率(Z=2.126,P=0.033)有关.结论 2010-2014年重庆市丙肝发病整体上呈高度聚集性分布模式.发病热点区域主要分布在经济较发达的都市功能核心区和拓展区,发病冷点区域主要分布在经济欠发达的渝东南生态保护区.城镇化率在空间层面上对丙肝发病具有一定程度的正向影响作用.

abstractsObjective To understand the spatial distribution of hepatitis C in Chongqing and its influencing factors.Methods The surveillance data of hepatitis C in 38 counties in Chongqing from January 2010 to December 2014 were collected,and spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial regression analysis were conducted respectively by using software GeoDa 1.6.7.Results The reported incidence of hepatitis C in Chongqing ranged from 7.3/100 000 to 13.6/100 000 during 2010-2014,with the annual reported incidence of 10.3/100 000.The global Moran' s I values were 0.478,0.503,0.529,0.438,0.406 respectively (P＜0.05).The local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated there were 6,4,7,5 and 6 areas with high incidences of hepatitis C in 2010,2011,2012,2013 and 2014 respectively.Spatial regression analysis revealed that the reported incidence of hepatitis C in Chongqing was associated with the urbanization rate (Z=2.126,P=0.033).Conclusions The spatial distribution of hepatitis C in Chongqing from 2010 to 2014 was highly clustered.The hot spot of hepatitis C were mainly in the core areas and extended areas with well-developed economy,however the cold spot were in southeastern ecological reserve area with less developed economy.Urbanization had a certain positive influence on the distribution of hepatitis C in Chongqing.