摘要目的 分析2012年和2014年流行性腮腺炎(腮腺炎)流行特征,探讨山东省2剂次含腮腺炎成分疫苗(MuCV)接种的预防效果.方法 在一定模型假定基础上,结合相关文献设置合理参数,构建状态空间模型,利用迭代滤波对模型进行参数估计.结果 2012年和2014年托幼及学生人群基础再生数(R0)分别为4.49(95％CI:4.30 ～ 4.67)和2.50 (95％CI:2.38 ～ 2.61).结论 状态空间模型能够很好地描述腮腺炎传播过程;山东省实行2剂MuCV能够有效降低腮腺炎在人群中的传播;托幼和学生是实现腮腺炎进一步控制的重要人群,应进一步提高2剂次MuCV接种率.

abstractsObjective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in 2012 and 2014,and to explore the preventive effect of the second dose of mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) in mumps in Shandong province.Methods On the basis of certain model assumptions,a Space State model was formulated.Iterated Filter was applied to the epidemic model to estimate the parameters.Results The basic reproduction number (R0) for children in schools was 4.49 (95％ CI:4.30-4.67)and 2.50 (95％CI:2.38-2.61) respectively for the year of 2012 and 2014.Conclusions Space State model seems suitable for mumps prevalence description.The policy of 2-dose MuCV can effectively reduce the number of total patients.Children in schools are the key to reduce the mumps.