摘要目的 描述和分析我国2004-2014年间戊型肝炎(戊肝)的流行趋势特征.方法 收集2004-2014年我国31个省(直辖市、自治区)的戊肝发病率数据,对发病率数据进行经验模态分解,以识别发病率的总体变化趋势,并采用数学模型对不同地区和不同年龄组发病率的变化趋势进行估计,得到发病率年度相对改变量;最后采用ArcGIS 10.1软件和SaTScan 9.01软件对发病率数据进行时空聚集分析.结果 2004-2014年全国共发生245 414例戊肝;发病率总体呈现上升趋势,但是趋势较为平缓(OR=l.05,95％CI:1.03～ 1.10).全国各省份发病率变化情况不一,其中南部和西北地区发病率呈上升趋势;老年组增加幅度最大,尤其是65～69岁组和70～ 74岁组.局部自相关分析显示,“高-高聚集区”随着时间推移,出现由北向南的移动,而“低-低聚集区”则随着时间变化逐渐消失.时空聚集分析显示,全国共扫描出5个时空聚集区.结论 2004-2014年我国戊肝发病总体呈上升趋势,不同地区、不同年龄组变化趋势情况不同.

abstractsObjective To describe and analyze the epidemiologic and spatio-temporal characteristics of hepatitis E in China from 2004 to 2014.Methods Data on the incidence of hepatitis E in 31 provinces (municipality and autonomous region) from 2004 to 2014,were collected.Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) was applied to decompose the time-series data to accurately describe the trend of hepatitis E incidence.Mathematic model was used to estimate the annual change of incidence in each age group and the whole province.Software ArcGIS 10.1 and SaTScan 9.01 were used to analyze the spatio-temporal clusters.Results During 2004-2014,a total of 245 414 hepatitis E cases were reported in China.The overall incidence showed a slight increase (OR=1.05,95％CI:1.03-1.10).Incidence rates on hepatitis E were discovered different across the provinces,with significant increase appearing in the southern,central and northwestern areas.The highest increase was seen in the elderly,especially in the 65-69 and 70-74 year-olds.Results from the Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the “high-high cluster” was moving from the north to the south and the “low-low cluster” disappeared as time went by.Data from Spatio-temporal scanning showed that there were five spatio-temporal clustering areas across the country.Conclusion The overall incidence of hepatitis E was on the rise from 2004 to 2014,in China,but with differences seen across the areas and age groups.