摘要流行病学是研究同质群体中“异乎寻常”的现象及其发生原因的一门科学.本文以因果思维结合其图形工具——有向无环图,围绕效应估计的若干问题——效应与关联的关系、变量及其测量版间的时序关系、动态人群自然图景、易感人群的形成、研究人群的选择、协变量和病例类型对效应估计的影响等方面,考察这种思维如何帮助我们重新认识流行病学理论、方法及应用.应加强对因果思维的认识.

abstractsEpidemiology is a branch of science that mainly involves in the etiology studies of non-randomness phenomenon among homogenous populations.In this paper,we use causal-thinking,supported by its tool-Directed Acyclic Graphs,to illustrate how the estimation of effects is affected by the issues as relations between effect and association,time sequences between variables and their measured counterparts,natural picture of dynamic population,formation of susceptible population,selection of study population,impact of covariates and types of cases etc.,on the estimation of effects.This type of thinking may help us to re-capture the epidemiological theories,methods and related applications.Thus,causal-thinking should be strengthened.