摘要目的 预测全国城市地区肾癌发病情况,为肾癌的病因学研究及防治策略提供依据.方法 根据全国肿瘤登记中心1998-2007年18个城市登记处的肿瘤登记资料,利用年龄-时期-出生队列的贝叶斯模型对发病趋势进行拟合,预测2008-2015年我国城市肾癌发病情况. 结果 1998-2007年我国城市登记地区男性和女性的肾癌发病率均有显著增加,男性从1998年的3.12/10万升至2007年的5.36/10万(标化率),女性从1998年的1.66/10万升至2007年的2.67/10万.不同模型拟合结果显示,肾癌发病率的上升主要由出生队列效应引起(P＜0.001).据预测2015年我国城市地区男性肾癌发病率将达到9.93/10万,女性4.54/10万；预计到2015年城市地区肾癌发病人数为52 259人,其中男性36 616人,女性15 643人. 结论 受年龄和出生队列效应的影响,我国城市地区未来肾癌的疾病负担逐年上升,将成为危害城市地区居民健康的主要癌症之一.应加强对肾癌病因学的研究以及采取有效措施加以预防和控制.

abstractsObjective To predict the disease burden of kidney cancer and to provide basic information for etiology and control planning.Methods We retrieved incidence data of kidney cancer from 18 urban cancer registries from National Central Cancer Registry during ten years period from 1998 to 2007.Ageperiod-cohort Bayesian model was applied for modeling to predict kidney cancer incidence in urban China in 2008-2015.Results Between 1998 and 2007,the incidence of kidney cancer in urban registration areas kept increasing dramatically.Incidence for male raised from 3.12/100 000 in 1998 to 5.36/100 000 in 2007 and from 1.66/100 000 to 2.67/100 000 for female.Different models showed that the increase was mainly caused by a cohort effect (P ＜ 0.001).The predicted incidence rate of kidney cancer for the year 2015 is 9.93 per 100 000 in male and 4.54 per 100 000 in female.The number of new cases will rise to 52 259 in 2015,including 36 616 men and 15 643 women.Conclusions The burden of kidney cancer in urban areas would increase due to the effect of age and cohort.Kidney cancer will become one of the main cancers threatening people's health in urban areas in China.Etiology research and planning of prevention and control for kidney cancer should be enhanced.