摘要目的 了解湖南省20世纪70年代至本世纪初居民心脑血管疾病死亡时间和年龄的变化趋势,为其防治提供科学依据.方法 收集湖南省1973至1975年、1990至1992年及2004至2005年居民心脑血管疾病的死亡资料.以死亡率、潜在减寿年数等指标分析心脑血管疾病死亡变化,对死亡率的年龄趋势进行曲线回归分析,并分析其动态速率.结果 湖南省居民总的标化死亡率、心脑血管疾病的标化死亡率和构成比与时间均存在线性趋势(分别为x~2=189.947,P<0.001;x~2=54.201,P<0.001;x~2=27 396.898,P<0.001).总死亡率逐渐下降,而心脑血管疾病死亡率逐渐升高.心脑血管疾病的死亡率随年龄的增长而增加,60岁后人群随年龄增长死亡率增加明显.1973至1975年10～19岁,1990至1992年10～19岁和80岁以上,2004至2005年15～19岁和80岁以上死亡率增速最快.死亡率的年龄趋势对指数方程((y)=b_0e~(b1x))拟合良好.潜在减寿年数的构成比逐渐升高,与时间存在线性关系(x~2=275 630.407,P<0.001).结论 心脑血管疾病对人群的死亡威胁随时间与年龄增长而递增.15～19岁及60岁以后为心脑血管疾病死亡高危年龄段.

abstractsObjective To investigate the time trends and age-related characteristics of mortality and disease burden for cardiocerebrovascular diseases (CVD) in Hunan, China during three periods ( 1973 -1975, 1990 - 1992 and 2004 -2005). Methods The cardiocerebrovaacular death data of Hunan residents were collected by three national retrospective sample surveys of death. Cause-specific mortality, proportion, years of potential life lost (YPLL) and associated indicators were identified in the population of Hunan in above mentioned three periods. Time trends of age-specific mortality rate were assessed by fitting curvilinear regression lines and the increase rates of mortality with age were analyzed in each period. Results The standard all-cause mortality of residents in Hunan decreased ( x~2 = 189. 947, P < 0. 001, x~2 = 54. 201, P <0. 001 ; x~2 = 27 396. 898, P < 0. 001 ) while the standard mortality for CVD increased ( x~2 = 54. 201, P <0. 001;x~2 = 27 396. 898 ,P < 0. 001 ) from 1973 to 2005. The age-specific mortality rate for CVD increased with age in all three periods, especially for citizens older than 60 years. There were age stages in each period in which the mortality increase rate was the fastest (10 -14 and 15 -19 years old in 1973 -1975; 10 -14,15 - 19 and over 80 years old in 1990 - 1992 ; 15 - 19 and over 80 years old in 2004-2005 ). Exponential regression function ((y), = b_0e~(b1x)) can be used for the proper description of age-specific mortality change. The ratio of YPLL for CVD in all death causes showed increase trend ( x~2 = 275 630. 407, P < 0. 001 ). YPLL rate (YPLLs per 1000) in 1973 -1975 was higher than those in 1990 -1992 and 2004 -2005. YPLL rate was positively correlated with mortality in all periods. Conclusions The mortality for CVD increased with time and aging. People older than 60 years were threatened by CVD mostly. Mortality trend analysis also found higher CVD deaths in people age 15 - 19 in Hunan residents.