摘要目的:探讨不同风险评分对接受体外膜肺氧合（ECMO）辅助治疗的ST段抬高型心肌梗死（STEMI）合并心原性休克患者短期死亡的预测价值。方法:本研究为回顾性成组病例分析。选取2017年4月—2021年8月于郑州大学第一附属医院心血管内科住院，接受了直接经皮冠状动脉介入治疗及ECMO辅助治疗的STEMI合并心原性休克患者。根据患者ECMO置入后30 d临床结局将患者分为生存组和死亡组，收集并比较两组患者的临床资料和经皮冠状动脉介入治疗、ECMO治疗的相关资料。采用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线和临床决策（DCA）曲线比较ACEF、AMI-ECMO、Encourage、SAVE 4种风险评分对ECMO置入后30 d患者死亡率的预测价值。根据DCA曲线评估结果，选取较优风险评分。参考既往文献将较优的风险评分分级，绘制患者ECMO置入后30 d的Kaplan-Meier生存曲线。结果:共纳入40例STEMI合并心原性休克患者，年龄（57.4±16.7）岁，男性31例（77.5%），其中死亡组21例（52.5%），生存组19例（47.5%）。与生存组相比，死亡组乳酸值高、前降支或左主干病变比例高，且住院期间发生急性肾衰竭、行连续肾脏替代疗法辅助治疗的比例高（ P均<0.05）。与生存组相比，死亡组ACEF、AMI-ECMO和Encourage评分较高，SAVE评分较低（ P均<0.05）。ROC曲线显示ACEF、AMI-ECMO、Encourage、SAVE评分曲线下面积（ AUC）分别为：0.707、0.816、0.757、0.677（ P均>0.05），ACEF评分敏感度最高（90.5%），Encourage评分特异度最高（89.5%）。DCA曲线显示AMI-ECMO和Encourage评分对于预测患者ECMO置入后30 d死亡率更具有临床应用价值。Kaplan-Meier生存曲线分析结果显示，ECMO置入后30 d死亡率随AMI-ECMO和Encourage评分分级升高而升高（log-rank P≤0.001）。 结论:ACEF、AMI-ECMO、Encourage、SAVE 4种评分均可预测STEMI合并心原性休克患者ECMO置入后30 d的死亡率，其中AMI-ECMO和Encourage评分更具有临床应用价值。

abstractsObjective:To investigate the predicting value of different risk prediction models for short-term death in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) complicated by cardiogenic shock and treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO).Methods:This study was a retrospective case-control study. Forty patients with STEMI complicated by cardiogenic shock who hospitalized in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from April 2017 to August 2021 and treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and ECMO, were enrolled in this study. Patients were divided into survival group and death group according to their clinical outcomes at 30 days after ECMO implantation, and clinical data of the two groups were collected and analyzed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to compare the predictive value of ACEF, AMI-ECMO, Encourage and SAVE risk scores for mortality at 30 days after ECMO implantation. According to the evaluation results of DCA, the optimal risk score was selected. Kaplan-Meier curve estimating the 30-day survival after ECMO implantation was plotted by grouping risk scores with reference to previous literatures.Results:A total of 40 patients with STEMI combined with cardiogenic shock were included, age was (57.4±16.7) years, 31 (77.5%) patients were male, there were 21 (52.5%) patients in the death group and 19 (47.5%) in the survival group. Compared with the survival group, patients in the death group had higher lactic acid values, higher proportion of anterior descending artery or left main artery lesions, and a higher proportion of acute renal failure and continuous renal replacement therapy during hospitalization (all P<0.05). Compared with survival group, ACEF, AMI-ECMO and Encourage scores were higher in death group, SAVE score was lower in death group (all P<0.05). The ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve ( AUC) of ACEF, AMI-ECMO, Encourage and SAVE scores in predicting mortality were 0.707, 0.816, 0.757, and 0.677 respectively ( P>0.05). ACEF score demonstrated the highest sensitivity (90.5%) and Encourage score exhibited the highest specificity (89.5%). DCA indicated that the AMI-ECMO and Encourage scores had the best performance in predicting the 30-day mortality after ECMO therapy. Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis showed that the 30-day mortality after ECMO implantation increased with the increase of AMI-ECMO and Encourage scores (log-rank P≤0.001). Conclusions:The 4 scoring systems are all suitable for predicting 30-day mortality after VA-ECMO therapy in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction complicated by cardiogenic shock. Among them, AMI-ECMO and Encourage scores have better predicting performance.