摘要目的:探讨慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重期（AECOPD）发生肠道菌群失调的相关因素并构建预测模型。方法:以2019年1月1日至12月31日宜兴市人民医院AECOPD住院患者作为研究对象。依据临床症状和粪便检查结果将对象分为病例组（45例）和对照组（83例），收集两组患者的临床资料，采用多因素logistic回归分析AECOPD患者肠道菌群失调的相关因素。根据因素logistic回归分析结果拟合建立AECOPD患者肠道菌群失调预测模型，通过受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线分析评价预测模型的效能。结果:病例组和对照组年龄分别为（76±9）和（74±8）岁，其中男性分别占80.0%（36/45）和69.9%（58/83）。多因素logistic回归模型分析显示：血清白蛋白浓度、急性加重发生次数≥2次/年、合并肺心病和糖尿病是AECOPD患者发生肠道菌群失调的相关因素， OR（95 %CI）分别为：0.98（0.80~0.97）、3.70（1.79~11.72）、2.62（1.46~10.80）、3.85（1.17~8.58）。AECOPD患者肠道菌群失调预测模型为logit P=3.858-0.13×血清白蛋白浓度+1.52×急性加重发生次数≥2次/年+1.379×合并肺心病+1.155×合并糖尿病，该模型ROC曲线下面积为0.847，预测模型的灵敏度和特异度分别为88.9%和71.1%。 结论:血清白蛋白浓度、急性加重发生次数≥2次/年、合并肺心病、合并糖尿病是AECOPD患者发生肠道菌群失调的相关因素，预测模型具有较高的临床应用价值。

abstractsObjective:To explore correlative factors and construct predictive model of intestinal flora imbalance in patients with acute exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD).Methods:The patients in acute exacerbation stage of COPD (AECOPD) hospitalized in Yixing People′s Hospital from January 1 to December 31, 2019 were included. According to the clinical symptoms and results of fecal examination, the subjects were divided into case group ( n=45) and control group ( n=83). Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the correlative factors of intestinal flora imbalance in AECOPD patients. The prediction model of intestinal flora imbalance in patients with AECOPD was constructed according to the results of factor logistic regression analysis, and the effectiveness of the prediction model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results:The ages of subjects in case group and control group were (76±9) and (74±8) years old, respectively, among which males accounted for 80.0% (36/45) and 69.9% (58/83), respectively. The multivariate logistic regression model analysis showed that serum albumin concentration, frequency of acute exacerbation ≥2 times/year, complicated with chronic cor pulmonale and diabetes mellitus were correlative factors of intestinal flora imbalance in patients with AECOPD. The OR (95 %CI) were 0.98 (0.80-0.97), 3.70 (1.79-11.72), 2.62 (1.46-10.80) and 3.85 (1.17-8.58), respectively. The prediction model of intestinal flora imbalance was logit P=3.858-0.13×serum albumin consentration+1.52×acute exacerbation ≥2 times/year+1.379×chronic cor pulmonale+1.155×diabetes mellitus. The area under the ROC curve of this model was 0.847 and the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction model were 88.9% and 71.1%, respectively. Conclusions:Serum albumin, frequency of acute exacerbation ≥2 times/year, complicated with chronic cor pulmonale and diabetes mellitus are correlative factors of intestinal flora imbalance in patients with AECOPD. The predictive model shows high clinical value in predicting intestinal flora imbalance in patients with AECOPD.