摘要目的 预测未来数年的我国基层医疗卫生机构卫生技术人员数,为卫生行政部门优化卫生人力资源政策提供参考依据.方法 以2010年至2015年全国基层医疗卫生机构卫生技术人员数为基础数据,采用灰色预测模型,对2016年至2020年我国基层医疗卫生机构卫生技术人员发展趋势进行分析.结果 2015年到2020年,全国每年需增加卫生人员约60万人,其中,基层医疗卫生机构卫生人员数增加20.40万人,全科医生人员数增加2.20万人.执业(助理)医师、执业医师、注册护士、药剂人员和检验人员的增长速度分别为3.20％、2.81％、6.88％、1.53％和2.16％;研究生、大学本科、大专学历人数的年均增长率分别为20.20％、12.42％、5.23％.结论 未来我国基层医疗卫生机构卫生技术人员的需求高于供给,卫生技术人员数量仍较为缺乏,专业结构和职称结构仍有待调整.应进一步加大卫生技术人员培养力度,提高卫生技术人员质量与素质,合理配置卫生技术人员.

abstractsObjective To forecast the number of healthcare professionals at China′s primary medical institutions from 2016 to 2020, so as to provide the healthcare authorities with references for optimizing healthcare human resource allocation. Methods The Gray model was used to predict numbers of healthcare professionals in China from 2016 to 2020 on the base of health technicians data from 2010 to 2015. Results The forecast results showed that the number of healthcare professionals may be increased to about 600000 people a year from 2015 to 2020. The number of healthcare professionals at China′s primary medical institutions was expected to grow about 204000 people a year, and general practitioner may be increased to about 22000 people a year. The annual growth rates of medical( assistant) practitioners,medical practitioners, registered nurses, pharmaceutical personnel and examiners in China were expected to be 3. 20％, 2. 81％, 6. 88％, 1. 53％ and 2. 16％ respectively. The annual average growth rates of postgraduates, undergraduates and junior college graduates were expected to be 16. 95％, 12. 08％ and 5. 46％ respectively. Conclusions In the future, the requirements for healthcare professionals at primary institutions will still be higher than demand in China, with a gap to be filled and their professional makeup and academic title to be optimized. Therefore greater efforts are required for their development to enhance their competence and professionalism, with reasonable staffing of the human resources.