摘要目的:基于共生理论探究总额预付制对非紧密型医疗共同体(以下简称医共体)就医流向和基金分配的影响，为相关部门制定医共体政策提供参考。方法:从某市卫生健康信息系统收集2017年1月至2019年12月某非紧密型医共体牵头医院和基层医疗卫生机构(以下简称基层)的门急诊人次、出院人次和医保基金使用等数据。采用共生理论分析非紧密型医共体共生系统，采用描述性分析和间断时间序列分段回归模型分析2008年4月实施总额预付制以来，该医共体牵头医院和基层的就医流向和基金分配相关指标变化情况。结果:非紧密型医共体共生系统形成了组织上的连续共生模式和行为上的非对称互惠共生模式。从就医流向来看，2017—2019年，医共体牵头医院和基层门急诊人次均呈上升趋势，出院人次变化不大；牵头医院下转患者人次从2017年的32人次增至2019年的87人次。间断时间序列分段回归模型分析结果显示，总额预付制度实施后，牵头医院门急诊人次占比下降( β3＝－0.43， P<0.05)，基层门急诊人次占比呈上升趋势( β3＝0.02， P<0.05)。从基金分配来看，牵头医院医保基金占比从2017年的45.98%增至2019年的46.51%，基层医保基金占比从23.44%降至18.06%；基层人均收入与牵头医院人均收入比值从72.62%降至60.79%。 结论:总额预付制度下，某非紧密型医共体内患者门急诊就医格局得以优化，但医共体内各级医疗机构的基金分配有待均衡。建议持续发挥按人头总额预付的正向激励效应，建立科学的利益分配机制，加强监督管理。

abstractsObjective:To analyze the impact of global budget on the medical flow treatment and fund allocation in a non-compact medical community based on the symbiosis theory, so as to provide references for relevant authorities to formulate policies for the medical community.Methods:Data on outpatient and emergency visits, discharges, and medical insurance fund usage of the leading hospital and primary medical and health institutions in a non-compact medical community were collected from the health information system of a certain city. The time range of the data spanned from January 2017 to December 2019. The total budget was implemented in April 2018. The symbiotic system of the non-compact medical community was analyzed based on the theory of symbiosis. Descriptive analysis and intermittent time series segmented regression model were used to analyze the changes in indexes related to the flow of medical treatment and fund allocation between the leading hospital and primary institutions under the global budget.Results:The non-compact medical community′s symbiotic system had developed a continuous symbiotic model in organization and an asymmetric reciprocal symbiotic model in behavior. From the perspective of medical treatment flow, the number of outpatient and emergency visits of leading hospital and primary institutions in the medical community showed an upward trend, with little change in the number of discharged patients from 2017 to 2019; The number of patients transferred by the leading hospital increased from 32 in 2017 to 87 in 2019. According to the analysis of the intermittent time series segmented regression model, after the implementation of global budget, the proportion of outpatient and emergency visits in leading hospital was decreased ( β3=-0.43, P<0.05), the proportion of outpatient and emergency visits in primary institutions was on the rise ( β3= 0.02, P<0.05). In terms of fund allocation, the share of health insurance fund of the leading hospital increased from 45.98% in 2017 to 46.51% in 2019, and the primary medical and health institutions decreased from 23.44% to 18.06%, as well as the ratio of per capita income of primary medical and health institutions to that of leading hospitals was decreased from 72.62% to 60.79%. Conclusions:Under the global budget, the outpatient and emergency medical treatment flow in a non-compact medical community had been optimized. However, there was an uneven distribution of funds among medical institutions at all levels. Thus it was recommended to continue to give full play to the positive incentive effect of the global budget, establish a scientific mechanism for distributing benefits, and strengthen supervision and management.